Bottom of the Ninth: That Heath Crunch for @Razzball

Bottom of the Ninth: That Heath Crunch for Razzball: http://razzball.com/bottom-of-the-ninth-that-heath-crunch/. Check out a roto and fantasy baseball analysis of the bullpen and closer situations for the Pittsburgh Pirates, San Francisco Giants, Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals.

Any player/Any era: Eric Davis for Baseball Past & Present

Any player/Any era: Eric Davis for Baseball Past & Present: http://baseballpastandpresent.com/2012/03/02/playerany-era-eric-davis/.

Some fond memories of his time with the Orioles and wondering how he would do on the 1960s St. Louis Cardinals.

Any player/Any era: Pedro Guerrero for Baseball Past and Present

Any player/Any era: Pedro Guerrero for Baseball Past and Present: http://baseballpastandpresent.com/2012/01/05/3848/

Check You out on the Flip Side: Brian Jordan

Well to quibble and parse words and whatnot: he can’t make key defensive plays at any point, I mean the ball has to be hit to him or an infielder has to throw a difficult ball to him – otherwise his job at first base is pretty pedestrian by defensive standards.

Still, Jordan had a reputation as a great defensive player. In fact, his .988 career fielding percentage is tied for 28th best with people like Freddy Lynn, Mike Devareaux, Paul O’Neil, the great Paul Blair, Tim Raines, Andy Van Slyke, Jay Buhner, Steve Finley and others. There’s a fair number of Orioles on that list – Raines and Buhner are the only ones who never played for Baltimore. And guess where Jordan was born? You got it: Baltimore.

Do the defensive metrics back up his fielding percentage and reputation? Sort of. His dWAR (defensive wins above replacement player) is 16.1, oddly enough most of his value came as a right fielder.  What’s most misleading about this card is that Jordan played just 27 games at first in his career and played 1,382 games in the outfield. I always remembered Jordan as an outfielder but, based on this card, assumed he was an ill-suited first baseman – shows you can’t believe everything you read.

Jordan was quite the underrated player. From 1995-2002, he accumulated 30.8 WAR (Fangraphs), the 35th most during that span and just a few ticks behind the immortal Frank Thomas. During that stretch, he hit .291/.341/.473 and averaged 18 HRs, yet made an All-star team just once.

Jordan’s last season was the year this card was printed. He didn’t exactly go out on top. Still, I’ll always remember him as the foil to Deion Sanders. Sanders was the flashy one who was better at football than baseball. Jordan always seemed rather workmanlike and was clearly better at baseball than football. Either way, he fielded his position well, hit decently and was one of the better players for a seven-year stretch – not much more you can ask for from a career.

Of course, I’d be remiss if I didn’t touch on the butchering of the English language. First, Jordan wasn’t really a first baseman. Second, “has prospered in the major leagues as the productive offensive…” just makes no sense. How about: “has prospered in the major leagues a productive offensive…” Third, the whole end of the sentence is Goobeldy Gook. This is up there with the all time greats when it comes to poorly written back of the base ball cards. It really should have been part of the 1987 Topps set.

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Check You out on the Flip Side: Delino DeShields

Anyone who reads the back of this card and doesn’t think of Top Gun or Independence Day is simply an unAmerican.

What I didn’t realize is that DeShields was Kenny Lofton before Lofton was. DeShields had a full ride to run point for Villanova before being the 12th overall pick in the 1987 MLB draft by the Montreal Expos. And, of course, there was that little tidbit of him Spud Webbing a dunk contest in a battle across sports (I assume this was a Rock n Jock, but can’t find the video).

He made quick work of the minors, posting great OBPs and made his debut in 1990 at 21. He hit .289/.375/.393 in 129 games.

Unfortunately, a lot of that average was BABIP driven as he hit .349 on balls in play that year. He came back to earth in 1991, hitting .238/.347/.332 and would lead the league with 151 Ks. In addition, his .9623 fielding percentage that year was the seventh worst by a second baseman in a season since 1946. But he got on base and ran, accumulating 56 SBs. You combine his steals with Marquis Grissom (who had 76 swipes) and you get the 11th most prolific stolen base combo in MLB history.

His average bounced back in a major way in 1992, as he hit .292/.359/.398 with 46 steals. Again, if you pair him and Grissom (78 steals) you get a bad ass burglar combo – the 16^th best duo in history. After four years with the Expos, he had a .277/.367/.373 line and 187 SBs.

The Dodgers, evidently thinking he was the next Lou Whittaker, traded a promising young pitcher by the name of Pedro Martinez for his services. That didn’t work out so well. DeShields struggled in LA, going .241/.326/.327 in three years.

After leaving the Dodgers in free agency, he played well for the Cardinals for two years, and then signed with the Baltimore Orioles. His first two seasons with the Orioles went well, but his third was horrid. He hit .197/.312/.309 and made the last out in Hideo Nomo’s no-hitter. The Orioles released him and the Cubs scooped him up. He played better for the Cubs and combined went 23/25 in SBs that year, tied for the 28^th best stolen base percentage in a season in MLB history (min. 20 SBs).

Speed was clearly DeShields calling card from a positive standpoint. He ended his career with the 45^th most SBs in MLB history: two ahead of Bobby Bonds and two behind Eric Young, Sr.

Of course, striking out and poor fielding would be DeShields calling card from a negative standpoint. He finished with 1,061 Ks, the 29^th most in MLB history by a lefty (two behind Any Van Slyke, another erstwhile Oriole). The 151 Ks in ’91 were the 29^th most in a season by a lefty (tied with fellow Flip Sider Ray Lankford). Hey, hopefully he can appreciate symmetry.

[Complete non-sequitur] For some reason I can’t divorce him from José Offerman in my head…and what do you know, Offerman is #1 on his similarity score.

Still, DeShields was a fun Luis Castillo-like player. He also put in work after his playing career, co-founding the Urban Baseball League and raising some athletes. You know about his son, but his eldest daughter appears to be the next preeminent female dunker.

In his work with the Urban League, he travels with fellow Flip Sider Oil Can Boyd as part of the Oil Can Boyd Urban All Stars.

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h2h Corner ~ Check You out on the Flip Side: Brett Tomko

I don’t know if this is at all accurate, but this could be the first baseball card that alludes to a player being in the “best shape of his life.” Unfortunately, Tomko’s improved overall strength didn’t exactly help him in the transition to the big boy league:

1999 with the Reds: 172 IPs, 6.91 K/9, 3.14 BB/9, 4.92 ERA, 5.06 FIP, 1.37 WHIP

2000 with the Mariners: 92.1 IPs, 5.75 K/9, 3.90 BB/9, 4.68 ERA, 4.94 FIP, 1.43 WHIP

I find his decline in K-rate somewhat startlingly, sure he went from a league that features the pitcher to one with a designated hitter, but he went from starting most of his games to relieving – perhaps that pitcher was a massive cushion for Tomko. Regardless, he totally needed that strength improvement program.

The card also notes that Tomko has four excellent pitches. While we don’t have pitch value data going back to the beginning of his career, I find it hard to believe he had one excellent pitch. From 2002-2011, his wFB totaled -20.1 and his wSL was -16.1. About the only thing the card got right is that his curveball was improving: his wCB was 3.7 in 2002 and 0.8 from 2002-2011.

Lastly, at the time of the Griffey trade, there was no way people saw Tomko as loaded with talent. If the Mariners thought he was loaded with talent, he would have started more than 12 games over two years and wouldn’t have been traded just two years and 127 innings later.

In fact, he was traded three times from 2000-2002 and, once he made it to free agency, travelled up and down the west coast signing with the Giants, Dodgers, Padres, and Athletics. He, perhaps, pitched poorest for the Dodgers, earning the nickname: “Bombko,” which, in any other sport, might be a positive thing. Tomko’s 1.25 HR/9 from 1997-2011 is the 31^st worst during that span (and look at the ballparks he pitched in).

While his career fell short of its promise, his personal life is rosy: Tomko is married to Julia Schultz (her google image search is NSFW but worth it) and has become an artist – I wonder what he wants to paint (certainly wasn’t corners like Bob Tewksbury, hardy har har).

And the most interesting thing about Tomko: his father won a contest naming the Cleveland Cavaliers; his entry stated, “the name Cleveland Cavaliers represents a group of daring, fearless men.”

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h2h Corner ~ Check You out on the Flip Side: Len Matuszek

As you read this on a Kindle or iPad, remember that, not too long ago, it was odd that someone was into “audio and video recording.” Hell, I made three videos of my puppy last night. Fellow 1987 Flip Sider (and one-time Phillie), Dan Schatzeder also had a thing for video recorders.

Things sure have come a long way since 1987 – it does seem like the “nerds” have taken over. I’m not just talking about stat geeks, but if you watch commercials for the latest video games, some of the biggest stars (Kobe, Jonah Hill, etc.) are itching to be in them. It is, quite frankly, cool to play video games. Of course, I play MVP Baseball 2005, NCAA Football 2010 and GTA Vice City, so I might be behind the times.

Matuszek is a Pong-esque relic from a different era, a no-hit corner guy. He was drafted by Philadelphia in the 5^th round in 1976.

He toiled in the minors from 1976-1980, touching double digit homers once, but showing a decent ability to get on base (he never posted an OBP below .345). He made his debut in 1981, but saw just 14 plate appearances. He got triple the plate appearances the following year, but hit horribly (.077/.119/.103).

He got significantly more run in 1983 (87 plate appearances) and looked good (.275/.306/.525), at least by 1983 Yuengling-goggles standards.

Following that small sample size opposition pitching drubbing, the Phillies installed Matuszek as their starting first baseman in 1984. He just happened to be replacing Pete Rose. He didn’t do so hot, though, hitting just .248/.350/.458. That OBP could play but the lack of power couldn’t.

He was shipped to the Blue Jays in April of 1985 and then from Toronto to the Los Angeles Dodgers in July for a broken down Al Oliver. He didn’t do anything for the Dodgers, aside from appearing in three games in the NLCS and going 1/1 with a run.

Two years later, he went .067/.125/.067 after 16 plate appearances, and his major league career would be over.

Hey more time for the AV club.

 

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h2h Corner ~ Kevin Brown, the Hall of Fame & Some Immortals, a Conversation

It all started with a relatively benign link and two sentence e-mail. What ensued was a long (pointless) discussion on which MLB pitcher Kevin Brown is most like, his Hall of Fame chances (none), whether he should make the Hall (sort of) and some other Dodger pitchers (greats).

Before looking at the exchange, which of the below are Hall of Famers in your mind – post in the comments section:

Guy1: 3.80 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 2.63 K/BB, 1,965 Innings, 1,494 Ks

Guy2: 3.28 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 2.66 K/BB, 3,256.1 Innings, 2,397 Ks

Guy3: 2.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.2 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 2.91 K/BB, 3,432 Innings, 2,486 Ks

Guy4: 2.76 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 6.8 H/9, 0.8 HR/8, 3.2 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 2.93 K/BB, 2,234.1 IPs, 2,396 Ks

h2h Corner:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/should-kevin-Brown-be-in-the-hall-of-fame/

Been a lot of talk about it lately — not sure what I think. I believe in all of the metrics, but it’s just odd – still he was damn good during one of the craziest offensive explosions ever and pitched in some unforgiving places.

DJK:

Kevin Brown has no chance to make it.  And, despite the strong underlying numbers, I think that’s right.  Brown was good for about 5 years (’96-’00).  I exclude ’01 in that grouping b/c he only pitched 115 innings and 1992 cuz that’s before the ball was juiced, the players were juiced, etc.  I can see a strong argument for ’92 if you want to put it in there.  Anyway, a 5-6 year career of near dominance is certainly something to consider.  He shouldn’t fail to get the 5%, though I imagine he will.  Anyway, I remember Brown over that span and he was amazing.  I particularly remember his three straight postseasons which were fairly incredibly.  Still though, over those 5-6 seasons Brown never won the Cy Young and never came closer than 16th in MVP voting.  Clearly not determinative, but instructive.

I think Brown is hurt by a few things.  The first and foremost is that he was kind of a douche.  That never helps with this voting.  The second is that he wasn’t really that good in LA (no matter how that blog post tries to defend him).  He had a nice year in 2003 (a very nice year, actually), but that’s about it.  Not only did he not put up great numbers at a pitcher’s park, but he got hurt constantly.  The third is – and I haven’t read anything to support this so it’s simply a hunch – but I bet a number of writers suspect him of steroid use.  For a guy to fall off and get injuries all of the sudden, especially in the juiced age, it just seems to align a bit too nicely.  Fourth, and just as a minor postscript, but his time with the Yankees may also hint to some folks that he couldn’t cut it in the AL and only survived pitching against lesser competition in the senior circuit.  Sure he pitched well with the Rangers, but that was pre-strike when offense was down.

h2h Corner:

Let’s set aside what will happen–he’ll share the same fate as Lou Whitaker….But isn’t this a sort of test case for new metrics? Or, at least, a useful thought exercise for myself?

I believe in most statistical advancements (don’t fully grasp the defensive ones yet). But if the metrics I believe say Brown is Hall worthy, then, don’t I have to agree? At first, I can’t really stomach Kevin Brown as a Hall of Famer — but that’s mostly due to my memory of his 1995 campaign with the Orioles. I projected a lot of pain onto him for that campaign (I was just 13), but in reality he was a very very good pitcher. While he only went 10-9, he posted a 3.60 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 2.44 K:BB rate – not bad.

He would then run off an incredible span from 1996-2001, during which he averaged a 2.53 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 221 IPs, 194 Ks, a 3.98 K:BB rate and 6.2 WAR. These numbers come from Baseball Reference, not Fangraphs.

For his career, Brown amassed roughly 65 wins above your average replacement player. That is more than Jim Palmer, Juan Marichal, Jim Bunning, Dennis Eckersley, Mordecai Brown, Whitey Ford, Sandy Koufax, Red Ruffing, Bob Lemon, Hoyt Wilhelm, Dizzy Dean, and a ton of other players who aren’t Hall of Famers like those gentlemen mentioned above.

The knock on Brown seems to be his lack of continued excellence. So let’s look at Sandy Koufax. Koufax amassed his 54.5 WAR in 12 seasons. Brown pitched in 19 seasons. Brown threw over 180 innings 11 times, and added two 170+ IP seasons – he averaged 171 innings a year.

Meanwhile Koufax threw over 180 innings five times and averaged 194 innings a season, owing to back-to-back 320+ inning seasons. Still, Kevin Brown pitched almost 1,000 more innings total than Sandy Koufax.

Furthermore, Koufax was worth over 7.8 WAR each season from 1963-1966. Brown was worth over 5.8 WAR each season from 1996-2000. Koufax clearly was more dominant at his prime, however during their “peaks,” Brown amassed 34.6 WAR, while Koufax amassed 37.6 WAR. Not a sizeable difference and not a big enough one for me to toss aside Brown’s innings and declare Koufax clearly the better pitcher.

In short, I don’t think I can say that Koufax had a better career than Brown. I think they had comparable careers – with Brown’s being longer. Sure, Koufax was greater at certain points, but not a whole lot greater and certainly not for a longer period.

I think a more apt comparison for Brown is to another Dodger pitcher: Don Drysdale. Drysdale pitched 14 seasons, He threw over 211 innings 12 times. He averaged 245 innings a season. He finished with a 2.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2,486 Ks and a 1.85 K:BB ratio.

So Drysdale pitched just 200 more innings than Brown and struck out just 89 batters more. Drysdale never had a peak so high as Koufax. However from 1960-1964 he would be worth 31 WAR. I think it’s safe to say that at his best, Brown was slightly better than Drysdale at his best.

I think Drysdale was a better pitcher than Kevin Brown. I don’t think he was a much better pitcher. Certainly not enough that Drysdale is a surefire HOFer and Brown will not get above 5% of the vote.

My contention: if you think Koufax and Drysdale are Hall of Famers, so is a less elevated Dodgers pitcher: Kevin Brown.

DJK:

Ok, while clearly not a perfect comparison (again, Koufax was DOMINANT for his peak 5/6 years) I think I’ve come up with the best modern day comparison I can.  Remember, we’re playing in a live ball era with smaller stadiums (so ERA and WHIP have to be adjusted up).  Also, we’re playing in the era of the professional bullpen, so guys don’t pitch as many complete games (or as many games period — not as many wins).  Anyway, if this guy were put before the hall today, would he be in?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carpech01.shtml

I’m kind of swamped at work so I can’t respond to this as completely as I’d like.  But, I’ll give you a few choice snippets to nibble on and see what you come back.  The first is that I’m not convinced that Sandy Koufax is an apt comparison for anyone when it comes to HOF consideration.  The man had five incredible years.  And they were incredible.  His raw numbers aside, he won the CY Young 3 times, the MVP once (finishing second twice), and was a continued All-star.  Perhaps there is an argument for including his 1961 season in this discussion (he did finish 18th for the MVP vote), but it doesn’t seem likely.  Regardless, five years of dominance, one year of good (’61), and then four years of not so good (excluding ’55 and ’56 cuz of the limited IP’s).  I’m not convinced that if Koufax came up for the Hall today (under a different name of course) that he would garner the requisite votes.  Those five years were great, otherworldly even, but does five years make a career?  Especially when the only World Series he won was in ’55 when he barely contributed?  It’s something to think about; honestly, I don’t think he would have made it.  At least not with the current group of voters that hold the Hall to be something sacred and especially difficult to get into.

h2h Corner:

Wow- it’s unbelievable the resemblance between Chris Carpenter’s and Kevin Brown’s rate stats.

Carp: 3.80 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 2.63 K/BB

Brown: 3.28 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 2.66 K/BB

However, that’s kind of where the comparison ends. Quite simply, while people think Brown wasn’t durable, Carpenter is fragile Fred Taylor compared to him. In parts of 13 seasons, Carpenter has pitched 1,965 IPs and missed all of 2003 due to injury.

In his first 13 seasons, in which he pitched a major league inning, Brown pitched 2,430.2 IPS. That’s about 2+ years more than Carpenter. Furthermore, Brown averaged 171 IPs per season in his career. So far, Carpenter has averaged just 151. In total, Brown has pitched 1,291 more innings (about six to seven seasons).

This accounts for the dramatic difference in WAR (Brown: 64.8, Carpenter 28.6) even though their rates are so similar. Furthermore, Carpenter never had a stretch like Brown’s from 1996-2000. Only twice has Carpenter been worth more than 4.9 WAR in his career. Brown was worth over 4.9 six times.

Brown’s innings (which were excellent) count. If Carpenter continues to pitch at this level for six more years without injury, he, too, might have a good Hall of Fame case.

I think people are discounting the breadth of Brown’s career. He pitched a lot and was well above average most of the time. Was he great? Yes, for 5 years he was superb.

Lastly, I’ll note that Brown has more innings pitched than Hall of Famers: Mordecai Brown, Whitey Ford, Hal Newhouser, Bob Lemon, Lefty Gomez, and (yes again) Sandy Koufax.

h2h Corner ~ Check You Out On the Flip Side: Raul Mondesi/Ruben Sierra

I thought I’d kick of “deck the halls (aka music)” week with a two-fer!

I am in awe of Mondesi’s info. First of all it is supremely awesome to step to the plate in any major league stadium. It must be infinitely more awesome to do so while your own music is playing. It’s like banging the hottest chick in the world on top of a billion dollars while your multi-platinum Barry White cover-CD is playing in the background (yes the one that Sade graciously sung back-up vocals for).

Any who, I kind of feel like I grew up with Mondesi a bit. I was 11 in 1993 and he was one of the first big rookies of my time. I kind of stopped following baseball intently when I hit college which is about when this card was printed. What people seem to have forgotten was how good Mondesi was with the Dodgers. Sure he flamed out in the AL East for the most part, but, for seven seasons in LA, Mondesi put up a .288/.334/.504 slash line. He also earned 21.3 WAR during his time out west.

Unfortunately for the Blue Jays and Yankees he would earn just 6.2 WAR combined with them over 4 years.

Still, Mondesi amassed some impressive numbers. He owns the 56th best slugging percentage in MLB history by a right hander — .485. He is tied with the great, yet somewhat forgotten, Joe Adcock.

Not to be outdone, six years before Mondesi’s 2002 Topps announced to the world that Raul is a better name then Enrique, Ruben Sierra released his second salsa CD. While that’s somewhat impressive (I mean Ron Artest has released like five million albums), what’s more astounding is that Sierra performed at Madison Square Garden. I would bet his performance was better than anything the WNBA has thrown out there (Lauren Jackson, Sue Bird notwithstanding).

Like Mondesi, Sierra was also a hot prospect who put in some serious work for the club who first signed him. In his 10 years with the Texas Rangers, Sierra put up a .280/.323/.473 slash line with 180 HRs and 90 SBs. He was an 18.4 WAR player for them. While his early career resembled Justin Upton, Andruw Jones, and Adrian Beltre, when we look at the totality of it, his numbers look a lot more like Joe Carter and Bobby Bonilla – not bad, but eh.

So what happened? Well, in 1992, the Rangers traded him to spacious Oakland along with Bobby Witt and Jeff Russell for Jose Canseco. While Canseco is largely remembered as a flop with Texas, he was worth 3.4 WAR over three seasons and put up a .269/.363/.512 slash line. Meanwhile Sierra would stumble in his four years in Oakland (.253/.303./.435) and earn -1.7

Still, coming off the juice of his promise, the Athletics were able to turn Sierra into Danny Tartabul. In his first stint with the Yankees, Sierra was worth -1.4 WAR. After rejoining the Rangers in 2000 and posting a positive WAR (0.7) in 2001 for the first time since 1994, the Rangers would move Sierra to the Yankees again. This time it was for Marcus Thames and this time, again, Sierra would be worse than a replacement level player (-0.4 WAR).

In all, Sierra was traded four times and signed by eight different organizations. Outside of the Rangers, he was worse than a replacement level player for every single organization. I feel like there should have been a Mad TV lower expectations commercial about him.

Somewhat shockingly, given Sierra’s lack of non-musical value, he ended up with the 15th most at-bats by a switch-hitter and the ninth most doubles by a switch hitter (428). He also tied for 18th for the most seasons with a HR in MLB history. He hit a HR in 19 seasons, which was also done by Gary Sheffield, Craig Biggio, Barry Larkin, Gary Gaetti, Ken Griffey Sr., Alan Trammell, Willie Stargell, Enos Slaughter and Ernie Banks.

Lastly, let’s hope his salsa music helped soothe and relax him during his career as he ended up posting the 25th most career game-ending outs. Sierra ended a game 113 times (try finding a replacement player that can do that!), two more than Ricky Henderson.

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For the history of this series, check out this article: Check You Out On the Flip Side: Howard Johnson.

h2h Corner ~ Check You Out On the Flip Side: Paul LoDuca

When you look at some of these cards, you see how far we have come in analyzing the performance and probable future performance of ball players. I’ll submit that the case of Paul LoDuca would not have been such a surprise had it occurred in 2011 rather than 2001.

According to his 2002 Topps card, LoDuca’s performance came out of nowhere. It is true he had a phenomenal year, especially for a catcher, in batting .320 with a .374 OBP and .543 slugging percentage. In his previous stints in the majors, spread over three seasons, LoDuca’s slash line was nothing (.241/.306/.351). Still that was only 76 games and 174 ABs.

What we would have known about his career in 2011 that most people likely overlooked in 2001 was what LoDuca had done in the minors. LoDuca never posted an OBP below .380. In his first year in AAA (1998), he went .319/.399/.452. He’d improve upon those numbers across the board in his second AAA season, including an astounding .478 OBP.

You might think that LoDuca was stuck in the minors because of Mike Piazza, however Piazza was traded in 1998. LoDuca did get a cup of coffee that year, but really never got consistent at bats until 2001. At that point, LoDuca would be 29 and would never duplicate the heights of his 2001 campaign. Perhaps there were simply too many miles spent in the catcher’s crouch. Still, he remained serviceable until his age 34 season.

I’ll always wonder what his career arc would have looked like had the Dodgers stuck with him in 1998 (or sooner).

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For the history of this series, check out this article: Check You Out On the Flip Side: Howard Johnson.