9 May
I’m joining the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Show at 9 & Get to do Are you Crazy: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-roundtable/2012/05/10/the-fantasy-baseball-roundtable-show.
We’re going to talk closers, Carlos Marmol, Heath Bell, Carlos Zambrano, J.D. Martinez, Andy Dirks, Jose Valverde, Cody Ransom, Eric Hosmer, Shaun Marcum, Jordan Zimmermann, Desmond Jennings, Mark Teixeira, Scott Downs, Steve Cishek and a lot of other inane things.
6 Mar
Shuffling Values: The Shifting Landscapes in OPS Fantasy Baseball Leagues for Razzball: http://razzball.com/shuffling-values-the-shifting-landscapes-in-ops-leagues/.
An article delving into how roto and fantasy baseball values change in leagues that focs on OPS (on-base percentage + slugging) instead of more traditional formats.
29 Feb
I’ll be on the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Show at 9 ET: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-roundtable/2012/03/01/the-fantasy-baseball-roundtable-show.
We’ll talk the LABR draft, Buster Posey, Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira, Paul Konerko, Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, Vinnie Pestano and much more!
29 Feb
Debate Me: Paul Konerko or Mark Teixeira? for Fantasy Pros 911: http://fp911.com/debate-me-paul-konerko-or-mark-teixeira/
I take Paul Konerko and see Teixeira as a 3-category guy who kills your batting average.
31 Jan
2012 Fantasy Baseball head-to-head First Basemen Preview for FantasyPros911: http://fp911.com/2012-fantasy-baseball-1b-preview-h2h/, focused on Paul Konerko, Mark Teixeira, Eric Hosmer, Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Smoak, Mike Carp, John Mayberry, Mat Gamel and many more.
19 Jan
Gripes about fantasy baseball come in many different packages –“it’s too labor intensive”; “I don’t have time to set daily line-ups”; “the closers change too much”; “the season’s too long,” “etc.” Do you see a common thread here?
In general, people love fantasy sports – just look at fantasy football. The only differences that I see between the two is that the football season is limited to 16 games (if you are lucky), each team has significantly fewer roster spots, there is a waiver period every week and there are far fewer games to follow (usually 15 per week).
So, we have a decision to make here. Either we call those people who love fantasy football – even though it is more random/lucky – lazy and ignore them, or, we try to bring them into the fold and slowly brainwash them into loving the pure intellectual pursuit that is fantasy baseball.
So, here is an idea for a relaxing fantasy baseball league.
Step one: make friends.
Step two: get together with said friends and draft homerun hitters.
Step three: draft 8 players and win your league when the mashers on your team out-mash the players on your friends’ teams.
4 Mar
Mark Teixeira – Current ADP 12; 5th 1b – My Rank: 27; 6th 1b
Mark Teixeira was barely in the top 20 first basemen in batting average – he was 19th. He was not in the top five in HRs at his position (he was sixth). He was tied for fifth in RBIs and he was second in runs. He did not steal a base.
Coming off three straight .290+ seasons, clearly 2010’s batting average (.256) was a shock. While his K-rate increased a smidge, his BABip declined from a career line of .303 to .268. This was not due to a change in line drives, ground balls, or fly balls – all were about the same as 2009. Of course, since joining the Yankees, Teixeira has gone from hitting about 40% fly balls to averaging about 44% – and, somewhat surprisingly, his HR/FB rate has declined since joining the Yankees.
The major 2010 culprit: Teixeira swung at more pitches out of the strike zone than he has in any previous year. The rate was about five percent more than his career average. In addition, pitchers seemed to catch on as Teixeira saw a lot less pitches inside the strike zone than he normally does.
I just threw a ton of numbers and percentages and ratios at you. Basically, his BABip was historically low and it should rebound. However, given that his patience at the plate has declined (as noted by his increasing fly ball percentages and swings at balls outside the zone), he won’t return to his .290/.300 hitting self.
In short, Teixeira looks like a guy who will hit .280 with 35 HRs, 100 runs and 120 RBIs. Is that much better than Adam Dunn who is going 38 picks later? Or Andre Ethier who is going 23 picks later? Given the depth of the position, I don’t see a need to select Teixeira at the end of the first round – his value is a lot closer to the third round than the first.
Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).
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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).
While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.
Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.
Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).
1 Apr
Ever wonder what my voice sounds like?
Ever want to hear me rattle off my thoughts on 30 or so players (including Mark Teixeira, Ike Davis, Derek Jeter, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Nick Swisher, Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Jason Frasor, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Nyjer Morgan, and many more)? Continue reading
h2h Corner 