Bottom of the Ninth: Introducing the BS Meter for @Razzball

Bottom of the Ninth: Introducing the BS Meter for Razzball: http://razzball.com/bottom-of-the-ninth-introducing-the-bs-meter/. A historical look at blown saves and a run down of the closing positions for the White Sox, Cubs, Nationals, Indians, Orioles, Red Sox, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Mets, Royals and more! It includes roto and fantasy baseball analysis.

h2h Corner ~ Opening Day(night)…thank god – or An Ode on Opening Day

It sure didn’t feel like Opening Day today. Usually the build up is akin to Christmas morning. That wasn’t the case today. Maybe I had done a lot of prep work, maybe it was how I awoke (a tongue in my ear and paw on my check at 6:03 – that’s how my puppy monster signals it’s time to go to the dog park).

h2h Corner ~ Encino Man, Baseball Fan

I was going through my 1991 Upper Deck set the other day and saw all the wonderful Curt Schilling, Pete Harnisch and Steve Finley cards as Orioles…then I got to the Astros and saw them all as Astros, then I got to Glenn Davis and remembered I tossed away his Orioles cards.

Then I watched Encino Man on TV and wondered, what if I was frozen in the backyard of someone’s place in California, thawed, and had to decide what baseball team I would root for.

Clearly, there’s a graphic for this already, but I wanted to go one step further and see what team unfrozen caveman lawyer would root for. To give a caveman’s astute analysis as he travels through the graphic.

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Ike Davis

Ike Davis – Current ADP 202; 18th 1B – My Rank: 111th hitter; 20th 1B

This isn’t at all spurned by the fact that Ike Davis is my starting first baseman in a 20-team writer’s league – not at all. I swear

In reality, he was on the list before that draft, but who knows if I would have pulled his name today had I not selected him recently.

Still, I really wanted to investigate the first basemen further given his successful 2010 campaign (.264/.351/.440).

Unfortunately, his isolated power (a measure of a hitter’s raw power) was just .173 (first basemen averaged about .200 last year) – so he gave up power compared to the position. He did post far better ISOs in AAA last year and AA before that – but it was against weaker competition and in hitter-friendly ballparks.

Of course, he did manage 19 HRs and 33 doubles last year – so he’s not James Loney. From my research, most projection systems have him approaching the normal ISO for the position which should get him over the 20 HR hump. With a modest improvement in his BABip (somewhere closer to his minor league numbers), you’re looking at a guy with .280 average potential (although he will probably sit in the .270s) and a .360 OBP. In short, he should get on base enough and drive enough runners in.

I took Davis with the 240th pick in the 20-teamer, so his ADP is clearly fluctuating. I think I got good value in him, especially in this deep a league. It seems he’ll comfortably slide in the top 18-20 first basemen (especially if you throw out the catchers that qualify at first) with upside to be in the 12-15 range. Still, his moderate upside won’t win you your league, but he’ll be a steady source of runs/RBIs and 20 HRs or so. Think of him as pretty similar to Adam LaRoche with a smidge better AVG and more upside.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small. That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

Normally, in this section, I take time to talk about something from Katy Perry’s life and how it applies to fantasy. Instead, please allow me a semi-brief reality TV rant. Why am I doing this? Well because it is a long baseball season and a guy needs to switch something up every now and again (just ask Hugh).

h2h Corner ~ (an impromptu) Keep, Trade or Drop: Cole Hamels, Johan Santana, Javy Vazquez?

Many thanks to diligent and awesome reader James Chang for the following Keep, Trade, or Drop. He posted in FB101’s comments section and we answered. What do you guys think?

h2h Corner ~ Back to the Future, Next Week’s h2h Preview

This column will predict how awesome/bad your team can be during next week’s contest. It will prove invaluable for those of you about to set your lineups in weekly leagues.

h2h Corner ~ I’m a Believer: All-star Game, National League Batters Edition

Welcome to June’s “I’m a Believer” column. Yes, I got the name from a Monkees’ song. And yes, I like the song. Did you know that Neil Diamond wrote it, as well as many other songs by the Monkees? Isn’t Neil Diamond cool (Red Sox fans)? Therefore – fantasy baseball love notwithstanding – aren’t I cool (hello, transitive property)?

Didn’t think so. But at least you now have “Then I saw her face, now I’m a believer…” stuck in your head (Co-Stan-Za, by Mennen).

For this month’s version, I’m focusing on your Major League All-stars.

I’m a believer in:

Yadier Molina – St. Louis Cardinals – Yadier hasn’t had the fantasy season that his brother Bengie has. While Bengie has posted an abysmal .269 OBP, he has twice as many HRs and 21 more RBIs than his younger brother. However, over Yadier’s last 94 ABs, he has posted a .356 OBP, scored six runs, and knocked in ten. Not as far off Bengie’s pace than you would think. If you’re looking for a backstop that won’t kill you, Yadier isn’t bad. Still, there are probably 10 – 15 backstops that are more useful. I believe Yadier is a good real life catcher, fantasy? Not so much.

Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals – There isn’t anything I could say to put in perspective how good Pujols is. Don’t trade him unless you get a first and second rounder. Don’t trade him for a pitcher unless you really need those stats. Basically don’t trade him.

Chase Utley – Philadelphia Phillies – Utley slipped on draft day because of lingering concerns about his injury. Well, his line of 59 runs, 20 HRs, 61 RBIs and eight SBs has made his owners smile from ear to ear. Utley is on pace to have a career year. As long as he stays healthy, he could be the second most valuable fantasy player.

Hanley Ramirez – Florida Marlins – Hanley, the 9th ranked player in the Yahoo! game, has been just about the only highly touted shortstop to deliver this year. Derek Jeter, Ben Zobrist, Jason Bartlett and Miguel Tejada round out this year’s top five shortstops. There is a bit of an injury concern at the moment. But, like with Utley and Pujols, you shouldn’t be moving Ramirez unless you get ungodly returns.

David Wright – New York Mets – I ranked Wright number one overall coming into the year. I thought he would display a lot more power this year, though a combination of Citi Field and “poor” performance have limited him to just five HRs. Still, even with his poor performance, he has 54 runs, 43 RBIs, and 20 SBs. He’s been good in the ratio categories as well: .324 AVE and .412 OBP. I think his batting average will come down a bit over the second half, but his power should improve. He could be a decent buy low at the moment (or maybe I’m just stubborn).

Carlos Beltran – New York Mets – Beltran won’t be playing in the All-star Game and probably shouldn’t have been voted a starter. He has had a decent year, especially considering the injury. Unfortunately, according to Jenny Vrentas at the Newark Star Ledger, Beltran will not be coming off the DL anytime soon. I believe he’ll score runs in bunches when he finally returns.

Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers – Aspiring GM, Braun has been incredibly useful this year and is the third best OF in the game. He’ll probably be the top OF down the stretch now that Hunter is on the DL and Crawford isn’t stealing as much as he was. He is on pace to eclipse most of his previous offensive numbers and is being useful in all five categories. This makes Braun, perhaps, the fourth most useful player in fantasy.

Raul Ibanez – Philadelphia Phillies – Ibanez was activated from the DL on July 10 after being sidelined for nearly a month. Ibanez, the fifth best outfielder, will give Braun a run for his money to be king of the outfield mountain at the end of the year. If people are wary about his return from injury and you can buy for $0.90 on the dollar, I’d be jumping on that. I believe in his productivity.

Brian McCann – Atlanta Braves – Holy moly, did you know there are 33 players on each All-star team? Brian McCann has been the ninth best catcher so far this year – behind, among others, Inge, Pierzynski, Suzuki, and Bengie Molina. His ratios are right in line with his career, so, as long as he is healthy and can see, he should see an increase in his counting stats. If you can use his slightly down first half to buy him for $0.50 on the dollar, go ahead. Still, don’t mortgage your team for a slightly above average catcher.

Prince Fielder – Milwaukee Brewers – Fielder is the second best first baseman for the year, behind the immortal Pujols. Fielder has been gobbling up RBIs like they’re veggie wraps. He has really improved his ratios this season, posting a .313 AVE and a .435 OBP. It’s likely they might not continue to be so high, but there won’t be a precipitous drop either. Enjoy the top 10 returns.

Adrian Gonzalez – San Diego Padres – It is hard to quibble with Gonzalez’s season so far: 49 runs, 24 HRs, 52 RBIs, and a .393 OBP. Still, a lot of that was owed to an amazing start. Over his last 96 ABs, he has just seven runs, two HRs, and nine RBIs. The Padres just traded Scott Hairston, which further hurts the Padres lineup’s run producing ability. Gonzalez is seeing the ball well and is posting the highest OBP for his career. The run and RBI totals likely won’t be at the elite level, but he’ll get on base and hit enough HRs to make you a happy owner. I believe he’ll begin to hit some more out of the park after this brief respite.

Ryan Howard – Philadelphia Phillies – I guess when you have so many talented first basemen you need to have four on a team. Howard is his usual self: low ratios, high counting stats. You knew what you were getting when you drafted him and he hasn’t disappointed. As the summer heats up, we could see some hot streaks down the stretch.

Orlando Hudson – Los Angeles Dodges — I’ve never liked O-dog, seeing him as little more than a Placido Polanco clone. In his last 95 ABs, Hudson has scored 11 runs, hit 12 RBIs, stole just two SBs, and posted a .221/.269 AVE/OBP. For the season, he hasn’t been bad, but at this point going forward I might even prefer Martin Prado over him. If you can trade Hudson for decent value and pick up a Prado or someone similar, that’d be a good way to maximize your roster.

Freddy Sanchez – Pittsburgh Pirates – Speaking of Placido Polanco-like players, Sanchez is the 15th ranked second basemen in the Yahoo! game. I don’t like players that derive most of their value from average or on base percentage. Sanchez hasn’t been exceptional in average (.318) or OBP (.356) to warrant being rostered in anything but deep leagues.

Miguel Tejada – Houston Astros – Tejada, the fifth ranked shortstop in the game so far, has had a Phoenix-like rise this season: 48 runs, 47 RBIs, a .330 AVE and .360 OBP. Still the lack of power – just seven HRs – limits his value. He should be eclipsed in the second half by several shortstops: Furcal, Rollins and Tulowitzki. His career BAbip is .298, his first half BAbip is .339. So there will be some correction in his ratios. I don’t think Tejada will continue to be as valuable as he is at this point.

Ryan Zimmerman – Washington Nationals – After Zimmerman’s amazing start he has cooled to be the seventh best third basemen over the first half. While Zimmerman is on pace for more than 100 runs and RBIs and near 30 HRs, it is not likely he will reach these numbers. Over his last 112 ABs, Zimmerman is batting just .232 with a .283 OBP. If you can trade him based on his impressive start, do so. I doubt Zimmerman will live up to those paces above.

Brad Hawpe – Colorado Rockies — Where did Hawpe come from? His 2009 numbers (.327/.401/.584) make his 2008 season (.283/.381/.498) look pedestrian. Hawpe is on pace for a similar HR total to last year – 25, but he should greatly eclipse his career average for runs and RBIs, right? Not necessarily, his 2009 BAbip is .375, and while hitters aren’t subject to the .300 rule like pitchers are, the best hitters in baseball, like Tony Gwynn (career BAbip: .341) and Wade Boggs (career BAbip: .344), never approached .375. Hawpe’s career BAbip is .342, so expect some regression in average and OBP, which could affect his run and RBI totals. A lot of his increased value is also derived from his ability to hit lefties this year: .288 AVE, .362 OBP, .538. His career line against lefties: .250/.323/.445. I don’t believe this can continue.

Hunter Pence – Houston Astros – Would it surprise you that Hunter Pence is the 33rd best fantasy outfielder this year? Pence has had a good year and could be a 20-20 player by year’s end, especially if he continues to steal at his rate. Last season Pence had 11 steals in 21 attempts, which is horrible. This year he has nine in 15 attempts, which, while not good, is almost serviceable. Pence is who he is and will end up with about 100 runs, 20 HRs, and 100 RBIs. Definitely a serviceable number three outfielder.

Justin Upton – Arizona Diamondbacks – Upton, at just 21, has become a better fantasy player than Bossman Junior. He has also posted the ninth best first half among all outfielders. Upton is on pace for a 30 HR, 25 SB season, oh and he also scored 53 runs and knocked in 50 batters. Upton, to quote Christina Aguilera, just keeps getting better. Enjoy the early returns on your faith.

Shane Victorino – Philadelphia Phillies – I need to finish this column quick before another Phillies outfielder is added to the All-star squad. I had Victorino as the 32nd ranked hitter coming into the season and he hasn’t disappointed: 62 runs, 42 RBIs, 15 SBs and a .314/.379 AVE/OBP. Victorino, the 31st ranked player in the Yahoo! game, has been the 10th best outfielder over the season. Victorino continues to be an underrated fantasy commodity and will continue to produce. If others don’t believe, happily pay $0.75 on the dollar for him.

Jayson Werth – Philadelphia Phillies – I had Werth as the 54th ranked hitter coming into the season and apparently I undersold his potential. Werth was the 16th ranked player and sixth best outfielder over the first half of the season. The latest Phillies player to hit 20 HRs has also scored 59 runs and knocked in 56, while adding 12 SBs. Werth is finally fulfilling the potential of being a first round pick by the Dodgers in 1997. He’ll continue to be a top 20 OF in the second half.

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h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry All-Stars XI

I’ve gotten a lot out of this column. I’ve been able to discourage my trigger happy move conscious self from grabbing the latest flavor of the month through astute analysis.

h2h Corner ~ Red Light District, the Closer Carousel

Closers do most of their work late at night, often after most upstanding fantasy managers have gone to bed. They necessitate early checking of box scores and Fantasy Baseball 101 to see if they secured the win for the home team.