Posts Tagged ‘OF’

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Matt Joyce

Matt Joyce – Current ADP 385; 86th OF – My Rank: 241; 108th OF Continue reading

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h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Bobby Abreu

Bobby Abreu – Current ADP 117; 32nd OF – My Rank: 50th hitter; 24th OF Continue reading

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Colby Rasmus

Colby Rasmus – Current ADP 88; 22nd OF – My Rank: 57th hitter; 26th OF

From a non-scientific and entirely casual Google exploration of the answer of “who is 2011’s CarGo?” Colby Rasmus seems to get the lion share of the answers.

However, I’m not quite sure the 24-year-old is ready to make that kind of leap.

That said, I do think he will outperform his current ADP – albeit slightly. I just don’t buy his career trajectory as something like CarGo’s (and seriously that was a once in a million years season).

Instead, Rasmus reminds me a lot more of Jay Bruce. At 21, Bruce showed all the promise in the world, hitting 21 HRs in just 108 games. However his sophomore campaign would not go as expected – he’d bat .223, battle injuries/demotions and appear in just 101 games. Of course a fair amount of bad luck (.221 BABip) played a part in that disappointing season.

Nevertheless, I see some similar warning signs with Rasmus – last season he had a .354 BABip – it was .282 the year before and never that far north of .300 in the minors.

In addition, in 2010, he didn’t hit anymore line drives, but did significantly increase his HR/FB% (from 9.4 to 14.8). Given those two things and a k-rate that will be north of 24%, I don’t think he has the chance to hit .280 or so, nor do I see an exceptional power upside.

I see Rasmus more as a .260 hitter with 20-25 HRs – i.e., a slightly better version of Bruce’s sophomore campaign – but short of what someone like Nick Swisher will provide.

The thing Rasmus has that Swisher doesn’t is a chance to steal 15-20 bases (which he did from 2006-2008 in the minors). Still, the conservative projector in me has him much closer to 15.

Basically, I’m in the odd position of both calling Rasmus a sleeper but trying to guard against a fair amount of hype that thinks he can be a top 20 performer.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Jay Bruce

Jay Bruce – Current ADP 75; 20th OF – My Rank: 47th hitter; 21st OF

Most recently, I’ve compared Jay Bruce’s early career to Colby Rasmus, without exactly talking about Bruce and his 2011 prospects. Thankfully, TwitterStar @Dorman06 asked me to provide my thoughts on him relative to his ADP.

It seems like I’m with the crowd on this one – and perhaps a tad lower on him relative to other positions.

In three somewhat up-and-down years, Bruce has averaged 119 games, 63 runs, 23 HRs, 60 RBIs and a .257 average. Clearly, in going .281/.352/.517 with 25 bombs in 2010, Bruce eclipsed his career norms and took a massive step forward to being the long-term power threat everyone thought he could be.

Bruce will be 24 in April, so there is still a ways to go, and you have to like his escalating power numbers. Of course, that’s cheating a little as 2010 was the first time he played more than 108 games – so his ISO was actually a bit lower than 2009.

So did Bruce take a step forward in 2010? And, if so will he continue?

I’ll tackle the first question first with an equivocating answer: sort of. He struck out a bit more than he did in 2009, however his 26.7% mark is not much different than previous years or in the minors when he was hitting .300+. So I’m not too worried about his Ks. He did have a slightly improved BABip (.334) as it had never touched .300 before. But that too is in line with his minor league track record and he did post a decent line drive percentage and cut down on fly balls. In summation, Bruce took a slight step forward, the kind of step forward a 23-year-old on his way to stardom should take.

So what does this mean for 2011? I think he’ll take another slight step forward, so I’m going to temper expectations somewhat. I believe he’s a .280 hitter – no worries there. However until he converts more of his fly balls intro homers, I’m concerned he won’t reach 30 HRs. I think he’ll hit around 25-27 and add a few more RBIs to his 2010 total.

In all, while some think Bruce is due for a break out (and he has gone as high as 50th overall in some drafts), I see 2010 as closer to his 2011 output. That’s still quite a fine player.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Hunter Pence

Hunter Pence – Current ADP 81; 21st OF – My Rank: 24th hitter; 11th OF

Collin Hager did a phenomenal job comparing Pence to Shin-Soo Choo. I want to do an equally awesome job comparing Pence to where he is going in drafts – and yes, I’ll play the dis-r-e-s-p-e-c-t card.

In his first three full years in the majors, Pence has averaged 25 HRs, 82 runs, 82 RBIs, and 14 SBs a year. He has also hit .278 over that span, but it is bogged down by a .269 average in 2008. He has hit .282 on the dot the last two years (also 25 HRs on the dot the last three).

Furthermore, Pence seems to be maturing as a base runner as he turns 28. After going a combined 25/46 in SB attempts in 2008 and 2009, he went 18/27 last year. Consequently, he’s a lock for over 15 SBs, with upside to 20.

Pence tied for 27th in the majors in runs scored last year, 28th in RBIs, 41st in HRs, 52nd in average and 39th in stolen bases. He just puts up consistent, top 50, numbers across the board, year in year out.

In the early rounds, you can’t miss on a pick and you need to accumulate a smorgasbord of statistics – that is Pence. I’m not sure why the likes of Curtis Granderson, BJ Upton, Alex Rios and several other guys are being selected well before him.

I’d happily grab Pence as a top tier #2 OF in the 6th round!

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

___________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Nick Swisher

Nick Swisher – Current ADP 121; 33rd OF – My Rank: 54th hitter; 25th OF

This is where I get to claim that I don’t have an unnaturally negative bias of the New York Yankees because of a 12-year-old boy.

Swisher has hit 29 HRs on the nose for the Yankees the last two seasons. He also hit .270 over his time with the club and added 86 RBIs/season and 88 runs/season.

Sure his .288 average last year (owing to a .335 BABip) is somewhat of a mirage – his career BABip is just .286. However his near 25% walk rate will continue to get him on base and scoring runs for a potent line-up. Even if he bats .260, he’ll post a .360 OBP, which means he’ll score 90 runs or so. He also has the potential to eclipse 30 HRs, with 25+ a lock and knock in 80 at minimum.

Give his ability to put up the counting stats, add in a decent amount of homeruns and not completely destroy your batting average, I’m surprised at how low he is going.

I’d much rather have Swisher than someone like Delmon Young who wont score nearly the same amount of runs and possibly hit 10 less HRs – ditto for Corey Hart and Nick Markakis and Vernon Wells and Alfonso Soriano. Swisher is a #2 OF for your squad who you can get at a #3’s price. As a 10th rounder, he provides a ton of value.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

__________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Nelson Cruz

Nelson Cruz – Current ADP 33; 9th OF – My Rank: 22; 10th OF

Over the last two seasons, Cruz has averaged a .287/.351/.548 slash line with 28 HRs and 18 SBs in just 118 games/year. That’s silliness. Imagine if he could stay just a bit healthier.

And really – that’s the only question about Cruz – how many games he’ll play – and I’m not real sure anyone can predict that.

Still, even in a modest 130 games, he’s a 30-20 candidate with sublime ratios. I’m confident that he can deliver second round value playing in the amount of games a catcher would.

But, think of the upside. If he could stay healthy, he’d be a 40 HR/25 SB player. That nudges him up a round in my book – you can’t typically get first round upside that far from the top 15 picks. However Cruz (along with Justin Upton) provide that. If you can steal Cruz in the third round, you should be amply rewarded.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

_____

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).