Baseball Daily Digest Radio with Joel Henard and Albert Lang from 1.09.12

Baseball Daily Digest Radio with Joel Henard and Albert Lang: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/thefantasyinsiders/2012/01/10/baseball-daily-digest-radio-with-joel-henard-and-albert-lang

We discussed the Hall of Fame results, Barry Larkin, Jeff Bagwell and Jack Morris.

In addition, we focused on  the Cubs latest moves, the fate of the Oakland Athletics, Jorge Posada’s retirement and his Hall of Fame chances, Ryan Braun, Brett Lawrie, the Baltimore Orioles, the Reds 2012 prospects, the Chicago White Sox, Tyler Chatwood, the Phillies line-up issues, the Marlins and Josh Johnson, and went through some fantasy baseball and roto projections/ranks.

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/thefantasyinsiders/2012/01/10/baseball-daily-digest-radio-with-joel-henard-and-albert-lang

Baseball Daily Digest Radio with Joel Henard and Albert Lang at 7:00 PM ET on #HOF

Baseball Daily Digest Radio with Joel Henard and Albert Lang http://www.blogtalkradio.com/thefantasyinsiders/2012/01/10/baseball-daily-digest-radio-with-joel-henard-and-albert-lang.

We’ll talk the Hall of Fame results, Barry Larkin, Jeff Bagwell and Jack Morris. We’ll also talk the Cubs latest moves, the fate of the Oakland Athletics, Jorge Posada’s retirement, Ryan Braun, Brett Lawrie, the Baltimore Orioles, the Reds 2012 prospects, the Chicago White Sox, Tyler Chatwood, the Phillies line-up issues, the Marlins and Josh Johnson, and go through some fantasy baseball and roto projections/ranks

Don’t Look Back in Anger: Jesus Guzman, Dexter Fowler, Jarrod Saltalamacchia

For Razzball:

Don’t Look Back in Anger: Jesus Guzman, Dexter Fowler, Jarrod Saltalamacchia

http://razzball.com/don%E2%80%99t-look-back-in-anger-jesus-guzman-dexter-fowler-jarrod-saltalamacchia/

Baseball Daily Digest Radio wtih Joel Henard, Albert Lang and special guest Grey Albright

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/btrplayer.swf

Listen to internet radio with JoelHenard on Blog Talk Radio

h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

‘Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Austin Jackson – Action Jackson (Ajax for short) over the last seven days flashed 2010’s brilliance: 11/29 with a home, a steal and seven RBIs. That brought his yearly RBI total to…16.  But no one owns him for those numbers. To date,Jackson is just 4/6 in SB attempts, after going 27/33 last season. Clearly his speed pace is way down, mostly do to his complete inability to get on base (.227 average, .284 OBP). Not surprisingly, his .396 BABip last year is being replaced by a somewhat more human .327. A large portion of that has to do with more ground and fly balls and less line drives. He is being pitched roughly the same as last year and isn’t swinging and missing more or making demonstrably less contact. Is the last seven days a sign of resurgence? Sort of, I think. He’s not this bad of a hitter; he’ll get to .260 with his typical seven percent walk rate (i.e., .315 OBP). He’ll get 22-25 steals. In a lot of leagues, that is useful.

h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Immanuel Kant, one of the craziest thinkers I’ve ever encounter (I hate the Critique of Pure Reason), created something called the categorical imperative. Basically, it was one tenet that would govern all actions. When you boil it down, Kant thought a person should only do something that everyone should be allowed to do, or in his words: “Act only according to that maxim whereby you can, at the same time, will that it should become a universal law.”

This got Kant into some sticky trouble when it comes to lying to save a life. The example goes: say someone runs into your house with a murderer hot on their heels. The polite murderer rings your doorbell and asks if the intended victim is inside. According to Kant’s morality, you have to respond that the person is inside because an act is moral not because of its consequences, but in and of itself. If you were to lie in this circumstance that would mean it was okay to lie in every instance of this circumstance, and, thusly, the soon-to-be murderer would know you were lying.

I’m not a big categorical imperative fan. I believe the outcome of actions should have a bearing on morality (and our rule of law, haphazard as it might be, somewhat reflects this, i.e., if you drive drunk and kill someone you get a higher penalty than simply driving drunk).

In my view, outcomes matter, I’m not as worried about how you get there. The same goes for fantasy baseball, especially head-to-head. All you have to do is win, it really doesn’t matter how. I routinely win h2h leagues with teams, that if it had been roto, would have finished in the middle of the pack.

At about this point in the year/week, you know what categories you are strong in. If Morneau zapped your power and there isn’t much to be had on the wire, it’s time to switch tactics. Look to gobble up speed demons – field an outfield of Jose Tabata, Juan Pierre and Michael Bourn and assure yourself of certain categories early in the week, and then try to focus on those you remain close in. If you go out to an early 8-2 lead in wins, it’s time to load up on relievers to massage those ratios and turn in some saves.

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Will Venable

Will Venable– Current ADP 304; 72nd OF – My Rank: 122nd hitter; 59th OF

Just look at Venable move through this course and try not to think of him as a Bo Jackson-level athlete.

While his physical prowess resulted in a 13 HR, 29 SB season, his K-rate continued to climb – resting at 32.7% at the end of 2010. Still, there is some optimism as it looks like he learned to take a walk or two – as his walk rate hit double digits for the first time since 2008.

Unfortunately, Venable hasn’t been able to lay off pitches outside the zone – in 2008, he swung at pitches outside of the zone 25% of the time, the following year 30.7%, then 33.7% last year. Furthermore, his contact rate has fallen the last three seasons from 79.7%-to-73.3%-to-72.7%. All of this culminated in Venable seeing more pitches outside the zone and given he cant lay-off him, he’ll continue to make less and weaker contact.

Consequently, it seems like last season was a bit of the peak for Venable unless he can change his approach. I can’t imagine his .320 OBP will afford him tons of SB chances – meaning he shouldn’t approach anywhere near 30. In fact, 20+ seems like a long shot (he only stole 20+ once in the minors and not since 2007). Consequently, we’re looking at a 15/20 guy at best with a poor batting average.

The only caveat I have with Venable is that there is no offense to speak of in the Padres line-up. This means they’ll have to “manufacture” runs however possible, which could result in more stolen base opportunities up and down the line-up. If this occurs, Venable has a slight chance of approaching last year’s stolen base numbers.

There are simply too many “ifs” with Venable to make him any kind of an option outside of NL-only leagues. I do like him a tad more than his super late-round selection number, but really only for 20-team leagues.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

‘Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Wilson Betemit – Betemit’s frequent Katy Perry appearances have dried up of late. That is, until he clocked two HRs, batted .440 and added nine RBIs over the last seven days. He is batting .317 in 230 ABs this season, what more do you need from him? I’m not sure why Pedro Alvarez is owned more than Betemit.

Hideki Matsui – As John McCLane would say, “Welcome to the party pal!” Matsui has been a hibernating Godzilla for most of the year. However, he has come alive of late (.400 AVG and two HRs over the last seven days). Over his last 75 ABs, he is hitting .360 with five HRs and 20 RBIs. He is someone I’d be much more comfortable running out there than Alfonso Soriano.

Ryan Kalish – Kalish makes the second appearance on Katy’s All-stars of his young career. And what scout wouldn’t beam with pride because of this accomplishment? Something tells me the scout that pushed for him is a bit prouder of his last seven days of performance (.273 AVG, seven RBIs and one SB). He probably won’t help much in the AVG department, but he will score some runs and knock some in, while providing some light speed. There are many a-league where that’ll play.

Orlando Cabrera – Quick, which baseball player with the last name Cabrera had the best last seven days? No, not Daniel Cabrera. No, it wasn’t Orlando either. It was a trick question. Miguel Cabrera had the best last seven days, but Orlando was a close second (seven runs and a .346 AVG). Orlando is hitting .412 since returning from the disabled list and will bat amongst a potent Reds line-up. Really, at this point, you might rather have O-Cab than Elvis Andrus.

Felix Pie – Judging by my readership numbers, the majority of the 50 of you are Americans. What do Americans love most besides explosions, big breasts, celebrities, cheeseburgers, paradise, and Budweiser? Pie!!! Yet the fantasy playing community hasn’t gotten behind good old Felix? Over the last seven days, he was as sweet as mom’s apple pie cooling on the ledge (.333 AVG, five runs and a stolen base). Sure he has been dinged up this year, but no worse than the General Lee. Flat-out, when he’s healthy he has produced. If you want an outfielder who can pop the occasional homerun, score and steal a base, gobble, do not sex, the Pie.

Brett Wallace – Wallace has been anything but his namesake lately. But he has shown rock-throwing flashes of late (.353 AVG and a HR over his last seven days). He will not get many RBI opportunities and won’t score much given the Astros line-up, but it is good to see he can, at least, hang with major league pitching. While he has the pedigree, I wouldn’t be hanging my h2h play-offs on his performance.

Alex Sanabia – For whatever reason even though there has been ample opportunity, Katy has shied away from naming Sanabia to her All-star squad. With the dearth of usable pitching out there and his recent performance (6.2 shutout IPs, one win and a 0.90 WHIP), she could wait no more. Sanabia has been downright effective all season, going 54.2 IPs and posting a 3.95 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Surely you think the 32nd round draft pick in 2006 is being lucky. Well, not so fast my friends. He has a 3.57 FIP. What concerns me about him is just a 5.4 FB/HR rate – I’m pretty sure he won’t be able to sustain that. Still, there is a lot to like in Sanabia, especially as a streaming option. Be careful about HR hitting line-ups and parks though.

Brad Bergesen – As an Orioles fan, I’m stoked with what Bergesen has done lately (pitching his third career complete game, allowing just one run and posting a 0.78 WHIP). Over his last 35.2 IPs, Bergesen has a 2.52 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Unfortunately, there isn’t much upside for Bergesen with a miniscule 4.32 K/9 rate. Basically, the Orioles have been playing some inspired defense around him lately (.214 BAbip over the last seven days; .227 over the last 14 and .261 over the last 28). Until Bergesen learns to strike more batters out, he is, at best, a fringe option.

Then you’re cold…then you’re no…then you’re out…then you’re down

Alfonso Soriano – There hasn’t been a whole lot to like about Soriano’s season, especially his last seven days (2/15). I hope he isn’t a starter for your team during crunch time. If he isn’t, why not drop him for a streamable pitcher or a hot bat? Frankly, there can’t be too many super deep leagues where it is advantageous to hang onto Soriano as he plays out the string. He is 77 percent owned – that’s way too high. I’d rather have Pie.

Pedro Alvarez – When Alvarez goes on a binge, it is Tommy Gavin-esque. However, those have been few and far between, especially over the last seven (4/26) and 30 (18/95) days. He is 14 percent owned – which isn’t a ton, but about 13 percent more than it should be. He can’t hit righties and really can’t hit lefties. Grab Wilson Betemit.

Mark Buehrle – I think I told you to drop Buehrle previously, but that was probably 20 Katy Perry All-stars ago. Over the last seven days, he did squads no help (6.75 ERA and 1.67 WHIP with just five Ks in 12 IPs). He hasn’t been a totally useless fantasy entity (4.16 ERA, 4.08 FIP and 12 wins), but his 4.12 K/9 rate is the worst of times. Frankly, he has no upside. If I’m streaming, he is someone I will ignore.

JA Happ – The wheels have come off the Happ bandwagon a bit lately. Over the last seven days, Happ pitched 9.1 IPs and posted a 5.79 ERA and 1.82 WHIP. He did strike-out nine, so it wasn’t a complete loss. Is this the beginning of the performance readjustment that statheads have predicted? Sort of. Does that mean he loses all value? No. Think of Happ as a guy who can post an ERA from 4.00 – 4.50 with a 7.00 – 7.50 K/9 rate. That’ll play in most places as a bench/streaming option. Certainly, I like him more than Buehrle.

James Shields – Man James Shields is killing me. I have him in most leagues and the glimpses of the best of times have been good, but he always seems to muck up the works. To wit: over his last two starts he went 11.1 IPs, posted 12 Ks and a 3.97 ERA. Of course he also had a debilitating 1.50 WHIP. At a certain point, with so little season left, it’s hard to suggest Shields will suddenly morph into the 4.22 FIP pitcher we all expect him to be. The Ks have been there (8.47 per 9) all season, which is nice, but he has been murdered by a .347 BAbip. I like Shields going forward, but you need to be careful with your ratios this time of year, so be cautious with how you deploy him.

FB101’s 411: Be sure you know how to judge a hot streak. Betemit, Matsui, and Cabrera make good adds. Keep your eye on Kalish, Pie, Wallace and Sanabia. You are allowed to sort of give up on Soriano, Buehrle, and Alvarez.

h2h_Corner on Twitter http://twitter.com/h2h_Corner

h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

‘Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Mike Aviles – Aviles has been a fantasy tease (at least for me) over the last several years. So is his last seven days (two HRs, one SB and a .474 AVG) tease or reality? I’m hoping it is closer to reality, as he is getting full playing time because Chris Getz is injured. For whatever reason, the Royals think it is advantageous to split at bats between the two. Aviles is a good player, capable of helping your batting average out right away. He’ll add light pop and light steals, but, when he plays, he is an above average middle infielder.

h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Drew Stubbs, Matt LaPorta, Kyle Blanks?

A few facts I know:

• Drew Stubbs only played in 42 games last year, but he didn’t disappoint. He smacked eight HRs, stole 10 bases and batted .267. In 423 minor league games, Stubbs hit .269 with a .364 OBP, while hitting 28 HRs and stealing 121 bases. Stubbs will turn 26 in October.