A Juicers Delight: a HR-Centered Fantasy Baseball League

Gripes about fantasy baseball come in many different packages –“it’s too labor intensive”; “I don’t have time to set daily line-ups”; “the closers change too much”; “the season’s too long,” “etc.” Do you see a common thread here?

In general, people love fantasy sports – just look at fantasy football. The only differences that I see between the two is that the football season is limited to 16 games (if you are lucky), each team has significantly fewer roster spots, there is a waiver period every week and there are far fewer games to follow (usually 15 per week).

So, we have a decision to make here.  Either we call those people who love fantasy football – even though it is more random/lucky – lazy and ignore them, or, we try to bring them into the fold and slowly brainwash them into loving the pure intellectual pursuit that is fantasy baseball.

So, here is an idea for a relaxing fantasy baseball league.

Step one: make friends.

Step two: get together with said friends and draft homerun hitters.

Step three: draft 8 players and win your league when the mashers on your team out-mash the players on your friends’ teams.

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Drew Stubbs

Drew Stubbs – Current ADP 156; 42nd OF – My Rank: 41st hitter; 17th OF

Let me start with a caveat: the batting average risk with Stubbs should knock him down your board a bit in roto leagues – however I’d still be comfortable taking him in the top 100 picks.

Meanwhile, in h2h, he should go near the top 40. Given his ADP, I think Stubbs is as close any player will come to matching the return on investment Carlos Gonzalez gave owners last year (and remember I called CarGo an 8th rounder last year).

You know the good with Stubbs – the ability to combine power and speed in a wayx that made Grady Sizemore look like a god (until they smote him). The bad from 2010 was an escalating K-rate – he struck out 32.7% of the time. He also swung at balls outside of the zone more often, made less contact with balls thrown inside the zone and traded line drives (down six percent) for fly balls (up four percent).

I think his K-rate can come down a good margin – it was 27% in 196 plate appearances in 2009 and never that close to 32% in the minors. Consequently, I can see his average inching up ever-so-slightly – he’ll probably hit a bit over .260. However, if he keeps trading line drives for fly balls, he has no average upside – but who cares? Everyone digs the long ball!

He could, legitimately, go 20-40, or 20-50. I think the floor is 20-30 (which he did last season). At only 26, Stubbs sure seems to have a bright future ahead of him. Given his ballpark and batting mates, he has good run/RBIs upside as well.

Quite simply, Stubbs should be the biggest bargain in h2h leagues in 2011.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Pablo Sandoval

Pablo Sandoval – Current ADP 125; 12th 3b – My Rank: 115th hitter; 15th 3b

Another twitter nomination! Sandoval confounded owners in 2010 after posting an incredibly good 152 game appearance in 2009.

Given he only has 2+ years of MLB experience, it’s a bit difficult to parse whether 2009 or 2010 is closer to the real Sandoval.

He did have a, perhaps high, .350 BABip in 2009 (but he also did in 154 MLB plate appearances in 2008 and similar numbers in the minors). So was his .291 mark in 2010 an aberration? I think it is – his line drive percentage, ground ball percentages, etc. are all in line with his major league track record. Consequently, I think he can bounce back to a .300 hitter (+/- .010), which is pretty nice.

However, the other problem Sandoval had in 2010 was a decline in ISO from .226 in 2009 to just .184 last year. He hit 12 less HRs and halved his 2010 HR/FB rate. I’m going to split the difference on 2009/2010 and give him an ISO near .180 or so. If he gets 600 or so ABs, that should result in 16-20 HRs.

Consequently, Sandoval looks to be a .300 hitting third baseman with moderate pop. Think of him as a Martin Prado-lite with fewer runs and more risk in batting average. He will likely out-RBI and –homer Prado though it could be closer than you think.

I could see Sandoval passing Chase Headley, Michael Cuddyer, and Scott Rolen in my rankings, but am not sure he has top 10 upside. I think he is being a tad overvalued in drafts and would much rather secure a top flight third basemen or wait and pick up the scraps. Sandoval’s upside is not really worth a 10 – 12 round price tag.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

_________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Ben Zobrist, Asdrubal Cabrera, Aaron Hill?

As noted previously, Ben Zobrist is all over the KTDs and my rankings. Part of me thinks it is because of his awesome (nick)name. Another part of me thinks it is because I went to pick him up in my deep 20-team expert league, but instead went with Micah Hoffpauir. That was a poor decision.

h2h Corner ~ 2010 Pitcher Rankings

Chicks dig the long ball, and so do I. That’s just one of the many reasons I prefer evaluating hitters to pitchers. From a ranking perspective, hitters are more predictable and stable from year to year. In addition, they tend not to be as infected by the injury bug. Because of this, I approach pitchers a tad different from other fantasy writers when creating my ranks for h2h leagues.

h2h Corner ~ 2010 Outfielder Rankings

Outside of Jacoby Ellsbury, there aren’t too many surprises in my top 10 outfielders. That said, I think Justin Upton deserves special recognition, particularly since he’s so young (he’ll turn 23 in August). In just 138 games last year, Upton hit 26 HRs, scored 84 runs, knocked in 86 and stole 20 bases.

h2h Corner ~ 2010 Third Basemen Rankings

I did a great deal of analysis on third baseman in the main hitter ranking column; so, if you want in-depth analysis on Youk, Aramis Ramirez, Chone Figgins, Ryan Zimmerman, and Mark Reynolds check out those articles. In addition, you can see all my ranks here.

h2h Corner ~ 2010 Second Basemen Rankings

There are well-defined tiers at second base this year. If you want to get a tier one player (Utley and Kinsler), you’ll most likely have to use one of your first two picks. If you’re willing to settle for a tier two player – as I am – you can wait a bit longer. For full rankings, check here.

h2h Corner ~ 2010 First Basemen Rankings

I can’t remember a previous year where you could wait on first basemen for so long and still get borderline elite talent. David Ortiz, for example, is my 23rd ranked first basemen; he is also my 99th ranked overall hitter. Following the underlying math then (trust me on this), first basemen make up just about 20 percent of my top 100 hitters. Indeed, all Ortiz did last year was hit 28 HRs and knock in 99 runs. Not too shabby for a double digit round draft pick.

h2h Corner ~ 2010 Hitter Rankings

This article comes on the heels of my worst fantasy year in history. Sure, I won my most competitive, long-term, keeper h2h league and my free agent fantasy league, but I finished last in my two NFL leagues, got smoked in Survivor, and I lost my College Football Bowl Series league (hey, I drafted two suspended players).