Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.
That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.
In case you were unaware, “Trash chic, which should really be a faux pas, is the here and now fashion trend in the music industry.” Whether it be Lady Gaga, Ke$ha, Rihanna, or are very own Katy Perry, every poprock goddess is putting on the new faux garbs. At least, Katy has been able to “bring more of the “chic” out in her “trash chic” image.”
I think we can all agree that the above paragraph is the perfect lead-in to the Katy Perry All-stars (not because of all the hot links). Quite simply, you need to be able to dissect fantasy fads – which surges are signs of trends that will stay long term and which aren’t. Luckily, I’ll give a handy dandy score sheet below.
‘Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up
Ian Desmond – With Christian Guzman being shipped halfway across the country, Ian Desmond immediately got an uptick in playing time. This comes at the right time as his bat has been doing a lot of talking lately (.435 AVG, one HR and one SB). At the moment, he is a huge add for deep leagues and NL-only. He won’t hit for a good average, but can provide power and speed from the middle infield. Mixed leaguers should have him on their radar.
Jason Michaels – Michaels only got nine ABs last week, but he did some damage (.444 AVG and two HRs). He hit both dingers off of lefties, and he has always been a southpaw killer. He could be a Matt Diaz-lite, something that is valuable in NL-only leagues.
Chris Johnson – Speaking of the Astros, Johnson is someone who should have drawn a lot more interest in fantasy baseball circles (not just fantasy football). Heck I’ve been writing about him since July. Last week, the youngster hit .455 and added a HR. He is hitting for average so far this season and providing some decent pop. He’s definitely someone I’d like to have down the stretch in 14-teamers and deeper.
Matt Joyce – It’s been a rocky ride for Joyce since he was shipped to Tampa for Edwin Jackson. He is finally healthy and in the majors. Over the last seven days he has shown his ability to smack the ball (two HRs and eight RBIs). He should continue to put up nice power numbers down the stretch. He’ll likely sit against lefties, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
Nyjer Morgan – I was at the Stephen Strasburg infamous start game last week. The second thing I noticed at the game (after Miguel Bautista warming up) was Morgan’s willingness to steal some bags and wreck havoc on the base paths. In fact, he is hitting .320 over this last seven days with four SBs. He took down a lot of bases in the second half last year. If you need speed, I’d be scooping him up in hopes of a 2009 second half redux.
Alex Gordon – Alex Gordon has three HRs on the year, but two of those came over the last seven days, during which he hit .273. Gordon has been too successful in the minors to completely write off his recent surge. I don’t fully believe in his recent success, but on the off chance that he is Adam Lind-ing us, I’d be adding if I needed power numbers. I wouldn’t drop anything special, but, occasionally, people do win the lottery.
Josh Tomlin – Tomlin strikes me a lot like John Ely. Unfortunately for Tomlin, he pitches in the big boys league and doesn’t have a ton of spacious NL West parks to pitch in. From what I’ve gathered, Tomlin profiles as a fourth starter at best, yet he has looked like an ace over the last seven days (12.1 IPs, seven Ks, 1.46 ERA and 0.73 WHIP). If you’re in a pitching starved league, it doesn’t hurt to grab him, but be careful when you deploy him.
Daniel Hudson – I love it when pitchers switch from the AL to the NL (see Vazquez, Javier, circa 2009). While Hudson’s home ballpark isn’t overly generous, getting to face the opposing pitcher a couple of times sure must be nice. In his first start in the NL, Hudson went eight innings, struck out four and posted a 0.50 WHIP. I’d be grabbing him if I needed a decent SP.
Bud Norris – I liked Bud Norris in the preseason, but, unless he was facing the Cardinals, it hasn’t been a good year for him. However, he did have a good last seven days (six IPs, seven Ks, no runs, 1.17 WHIP) and a decent last 24 IPs (20 Ks, 4.81 ERA and 1.36 WHIP). I see him as a lot like Gio Gonzalez in 2009. You need to be careful when you use him, but, at the very least, you are guaranteed 5+ Ks. That is a very important commodity to have in h2h leagues.
Then you’re cold…then you’re no…then you’re out…then you’re down
Fausto Carmona – While Carmona has been good this year, I’ve been hesitant to buy into it. His last seven days (two starts) were pretty detrimental to fantasy owners (9.2 IPs, six Ks, 7.45 ERA and 2.07 WHIP). However, that statement is a bit misguiding as he was brutal in a start against the Yankees (2.2 IPs, seven runs) and great against Boston. Every pitcher has a bad outing. So, should we brush this off? Not necessarily, his BAbip on the year is a tad low (.284), he has a much lower HR/FB% (6.3) than he typically does, and his xFIP is 4.53. I don’t think he’ll fall off the cliff over the balance of the year, but I do believe his numbers will regress a tad. This just means you have to watch his match-ups a little closer than you have been.
Johan Santana – It’s odd that Ervin has almost had a better year than Johan. He certainly had a better week, as Johan went 12.2 IPs and posted a 7.82/1.97 ERA/WHIP. He did strike-out 13, which is pretty nice. While he had a bad BAbip in those two starts (.444), Johan is who he is at this point. He wont be the Johan of old unless he brings his K/9 up to near eight (currently it is only 6.1). Still, he’ll provide useful ratios.
Jonathan Niese – It was a bad week for two-start Mets pitchers, as Niese went 10.1 IPs, and posted a 6.10 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. What’s worse is that he collected only three Ks. However, that was mostly a product of a disaster start against the Diamondbacks (4.1 IPs, six runs). Niese isn’t as good as his ERA indicates, but can be a serviceable pitcher with a low- to mid-4.00 ERA down the stretch.
Josh Johnson – I hope last week reminded everyone of what Ubaldo Jimenez’s consecutive poor outings meant: pitching performances are incredibly inconsistent. Last week, Johnson went 12.2 IPs, struck-out 10, but posted a 5.68/1.74 ERA/WHIP. Certainly, people were expecting more out of a two-start Johnson week. Still, it was just two-starts; expect him to be back and good (though not sub-2.00 good) in his next outing.
Brennan Boesch – I hope you listened to me and traded Boesch. If not, you were treated to a very poor week (2/25) and an even worse month (.161 AVG). At this point, I’m dropping him in 10-team leagues and benching him in all others. He isn’t this bad, but you don’t have time to wait for him to make some corrections.
Adam Lind – I’m finally ready to give up on Lind. While he has been decent over the last month or so .267 AVG and five HRs, his last week was disastrous (.158 AVG. You simply can’t count on him in h2h leagues. If there are decent OF options out there, I wouldn’t think twice about dropping Lind.
Alex Rodriguez – Everyone says AROD is pressing to get to number 600. Maybe he is. He does seem like the type to let something like that bother him. However, you’d think he’d be hitting a little. Over the last seven days, AROD has just three hits and a .115 AVG. He is what he is at this point, a pretty streaky, somewhat old player. Recently, I suggested he might be a third rounder next year. I think I’m right. He is only the 73rd ranked player. He is on pace for 83 runs, 27 HRs, and 136 RBIs. Sure the RBIs are nice, but he only has two SBs (and no signs that he wants to steal double digits like he has done every year since 2002). He also has the worst AVG/OBP/SLG of his career. Some of that is due to a low BAbip (.280 in 2010 versus a .319 career mark), but some of it is old age. I’d be scared of AROD in early rounds next year.
Julio Borbon – Borbon hasn’t been awful this season (.271 AVG), but he only has nine SBs. For someone with no power, he needs to have a lot more SBs to make himself useful. He didn’t hit well over the last seven days (.231), and he has only stolen once over the last month. If you haven’t already, it is time to cut Borbon.
All stats as of noon August 3, 2010.
FB101’s 411: Be sure you know how to judge a hot streak. Desmond, Johnson, Morgan, and Hudson make good adds. Keep your eye on Gordon, Norris, Tomlin and Joyue. You are allowed to sort of give up on Julio Borbon, Brennan Boesch, and Adam Lind.
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