h2h Corner ~ Don’t Look Back: J.R. Towles

“Don’t look back in anger, I heard you say”

From 2008 – 2010, J.R. Towles put up a .158/.247/.286 line with seven HRs in 275 plate appearances. Of course, he was a massive sleeper going into 2008 based on 44 plate appearances in 2007, during which he went .375/.432/.575.

That’s not exactly fair, as Towles had built a pretty good minor league resume, posting good averages and great on base percentages.

h2h Corner ~ You’re Killing me Smalls: Yovani Gallardo

Yovani Gallardo: Average Draft Position 64

5×5 Rank: 734

Ownership: 97%

31.1 IPs, 2 wins, 20 Ks, 4.88 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Things, seemingly, started beautifully for Gallardo in 2011. After his first two starts, he had pitched 15 innings, allowed two runs and allowed just 14 base runners. Unfortunately, he only tallied six Ks and has posted a 5.74 K/9 rate this year. This ratio has been 9.73+ over the last two seasons.

h2h Corner ~ You’re Killing me Smalls: Ryan Ludwick

Ryan Ludwick: average draft position 61 in NL-only

5×5 rank: 267

Ownership: 5%

12/60, 10 runs, 2 HRs, 8 RBIs, 1 SB

The five percent-owned Ryan Ludwick isn’t really killing many owners.

The real question is whether he can help owners in any league, because that .200 average he is toting around makes the counting numbers worthless.

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Matt Joyce

Matt Joyce – Current ADP 385; 86th OF – My Rank: 241; 108th OF

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Jay Bruce

Jay Bruce – Current ADP 75; 20th OF – My Rank: 47th hitter; 21st OF

Most recently, I’ve compared Jay Bruce’s early career to Colby Rasmus, without exactly talking about Bruce and his 2011 prospects. Thankfully, TwitterStar @Dorman06 asked me to provide my thoughts on him relative to his ADP.

It seems like I’m with the crowd on this one – and perhaps a tad lower on him relative to other positions.

In three somewhat up-and-down years, Bruce has averaged 119 games, 63 runs, 23 HRs, 60 RBIs and a .257 average. Clearly, in going .281/.352/.517 with 25 bombs in 2010, Bruce eclipsed his career norms and took a massive step forward to being the long-term power threat everyone thought he could be.

Bruce will be 24 in April, so there is still a ways to go, and you have to like his escalating power numbers. Of course, that’s cheating a little as 2010 was the first time he played more than 108 games – so his ISO was actually a bit lower than 2009.

So did Bruce take a step forward in 2010? And, if so will he continue?

I’ll tackle the first question first with an equivocating answer: sort of. He struck out a bit more than he did in 2009, however his 26.7% mark is not much different than previous years or in the minors when he was hitting .300+. So I’m not too worried about his Ks. He did have a slightly improved BABip (.334) as it had never touched .300 before. But that too is in line with his minor league track record and he did post a decent line drive percentage and cut down on fly balls. In summation, Bruce took a slight step forward, the kind of step forward a 23-year-old on his way to stardom should take.

So what does this mean for 2011? I think he’ll take another slight step forward, so I’m going to temper expectations somewhat. I believe he’s a .280 hitter – no worries there. However until he converts more of his fly balls intro homers, I’m concerned he won’t reach 30 HRs. I think he’ll hit around 25-27 and add a few more RBIs to his 2010 total.

In all, while some think Bruce is due for a break out (and he has gone as high as 50th overall in some drafts), I see 2010 as closer to his 2011 output. That’s still quite a fine player.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Ben Zobrist, Jason Bartlett, Asdrubel Cabrera?

I’m guessing a lot of people obtained Ben Zobrist late in drafts or off the free agent heap, which makes him an attractive keeper for the 2010 season. Add that to his 2009 campaign which came as a bit of surprise and the fact that he qualifies everywhere and it’s no wonder he has his fair share of KTDs.

h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Ben Zobrist, Asdrubal Cabrera, Aaron Hill?

As noted previously, Ben Zobrist is all over the KTDs and my rankings. Part of me thinks it is because of his awesome (nick)name. Another part of me thinks it is because I went to pick him up in my deep 20-team expert league, but instead went with Micah Hoffpauir. That was a poor decision.

h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Wade Davis, Brandon Morrow, Homer Bailey?

Brandon Morrow just ended up on the wrong side of a divisional swap. Trading the West for the East won’t help his ratios. Still, there is a lot of good in Morrow: he wont be 26 until July; he has a career 9.3 K/9 rate in the majors; and he has tasted major league success, albeit as a reliever. However, if you look at his statistics as a starter and reliever they are eerily similar: 4.42 ERA, 1.47 WHIP as a starter, 3.65 ERA and 1.46 WHIP as a reliever. Basically, in his beast season (2008), his BAbip was .207. In 2007 it was .321 and, in 2009, it was .287. Unsurprisingly, Morrow’s career has been a yo-yo, his stats have hit highs and lows, he’s been a reliever, then a starter, then a reliever. One would hope he gets a chance to prepare and be a starter for a full season. Still, at the moment, Morrow is nothing more than a cheap lottery chip.

h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Andre Ethier, Hunter Pence, Ben Zobrist?

Ben Zobrist is quite the conundrum for fantasy owners. He seems to qualify everywhere, he hit 27 HRs last year, stole 17 bases, batted .297 and posted a .405 OBP. What’s more, that HR total wasn’t completely flukey, as he smacked 12 dingers in only 62 games in 2008, so there was a chance he could hit more given the opportunity. Of course, he only managed to hit 23 HRs and steal 20 bases in 1,335 minor league ABs – so there was a ton of reasons to doubt him. Zobrist will be 29 in May, so he is in the sweet spot of his prime. I think you can bank on decent AVEs and OBPs, 20 or so HRs and 15 SBs for the next couple of years.

h2h Corner ~ 2010 Catcher Rankings

Catchers are just so blech. Unless you are trotting Joe Mauer out there, they can be the millstone around a fantasy team’s neck. They get injured, they miss games; in deep leagues, you typically just want someone who doesn’t kill your batting average. That said, thanks for stopping by to check out my catcher evaluation. For full rankings, check here.