Posts Tagged ‘will venable’

Lock, Stock and Taking Stock, Part 2

Lock, Stock and Taking Stock, Part 2

http://razzball.com/lock-stock-and-taking-stock-part-2/

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h2h Corner ~ Deep League Detective

A line-up consisting of barely owned players who can help you fill gaps

C: Josh Thole would have been my guy but he just took a ball off the hand – not so good.

Salvador Perez – On August 29, the plucky Perez came a triple short of the cycle and smacked his first major league dinger against Max Scherzer. Perez, just 21-years-old, decided to run roughshod over AAA in his limited time there: 49 plate appearances with a .333/.347/.500 line. His promotion to AAA was a little odd, given that he looked good at AA but not otherworldly (.283/.329/.427). Still, he had 10 homers across 358 plate appearances in the minors this season. While he doesn’t strike out a lot, he also doesn’t walk a lot, so he relies heavily on the balls he puts in play. So far, his line drive rate (22%) is impeccable and his swinging strike rate (9.2%) is serviceable. I think Perez is capable of three more homers and a .270 rest of the way.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Flowers

1b: Juan Rivera – Since July 30, Rivera has 108 plate appearances and a .281/.343/.406 line. Without striking out more or walking more, Rivera has improved considerably since joining the weaker league even though his line drive, ground ball and fly ball percentages remain similar. What has changed then? Well he’s making a lot more contact – his swinging strikes have gone down and his contact rate has jumped four percent. He is likely not a .285 hitter, but .270 with three or so more homers? Yeah, I’d bank on that and I am in some deep leagues.

Honorable Mention: Kyle Blanks, Paul Goldschmidt, Brandon Allen who I’ve covered a ton and are probably owned in competitive leagues

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h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

James Loney – Loney has been my whipping boy for some time now. I think a no hit/no walk first baseman barely belongs in a beer league softball league and nowhere near a fantasy baseball (or real baseball) team. That said, Loney was successful at striking the ball over the last seven days: 12/22 with a dinger. Loney brought his season HR totals up to six, which is pretty darn impressive…in that it is barely inside the top 200 on the season and behind Erick Aybar, Juan Miranda and his 174 ABs, Scott Hairston, Coco Crisp, Miguel Cairo, Peter Bourjos, Adam Kennedy and almost every MLB regular. If you’re lucky, you’ll get 1-2 more homers from him ROTW. In NL-only, his .270 or so average is worth something – outside of that it’s not worth a cheap dog biscuit.

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h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Rod Barajas – As stated in the Katy Perry All-star by-laws, Barajas must make at least one appearance every year (here, here and here). We were beginning to run out of time though, so it was nice to see Barajas really make a case for himself by going 9/17 with four homers over the last seven days. With Navarro out of the picture and the Dodgers still hating on A.J. Ellis, Barajas looks to be a “starting” catcher form here on out. Barajas falls into the Salty/Arencibia mold, he won’t hit much higher than .250 the rest of the way, but he could mash a couple of dongs here or there. He’s a nice get in deeper leagues.

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h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Kyle Blanks – It seems every Katy Perry All-stars includes a smattering of Padres. Blanks, a one-time love of mine, is now back in Katy’s good graces, following a seven-day stretch which saw him go 10/23 with two bombs. Those were his first two round trippers this year and he had previously been 3/29. So it’s not as if Blanks is suddenly a solid batting average guy. That said, he was torching the minors and should have no problem batting around .250 with some good pop. He’ll definitely be a factor in deep leagues and could even play his way onto 12-team rosters.

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h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Will Venable

Will Venable– Current ADP 304; 72nd OF – My Rank: 122nd hitter; 59th OF

Just look at Venable move through this course and try not to think of him as a Bo Jackson-level athlete.

While his physical prowess resulted in a 13 HR, 29 SB season, his K-rate continued to climb – resting at 32.7% at the end of 2010. Still, there is some optimism as it looks like he learned to take a walk or two – as his walk rate hit double digits for the first time since 2008.

Unfortunately, Venable hasn’t been able to lay off pitches outside the zone – in 2008, he swung at pitches outside of the zone 25% of the time, the following year 30.7%, then 33.7% last year. Furthermore, his contact rate has fallen the last three seasons from 79.7%-to-73.3%-to-72.7%. All of this culminated in Venable seeing more pitches outside the zone and given he cant lay-off him, he’ll continue to make less and weaker contact.

Consequently, it seems like last season was a bit of the peak for Venable unless he can change his approach. I can’t imagine his .320 OBP will afford him tons of SB chances – meaning he shouldn’t approach anywhere near 30. In fact, 20+ seems like a long shot (he only stole 20+ once in the minors and not since 2007). Consequently, we’re looking at a 15/20 guy at best with a poor batting average.

The only caveat I have with Venable is that there is no offense to speak of in the Padres line-up. This means they’ll have to “manufacture” runs however possible, which could result in more stolen base opportunities up and down the line-up. If this occurs, Venable has a slight chance of approaching last year’s stolen base numbers.

There are simply too many “ifs” with Venable to make him any kind of an option outside of NL-only leagues. I do like him a tad more than his super late-round selection number, but really only for 20-team leagues.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).