Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.
That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.
I think Matthew Berry (not this guy) subtly stole my column idea!! His latest opus talks about the Maxim Top 100, which, as you well know, loyal reader, I discussed a week ago. He also goes on to say Katy is too highly ranked, which I agree with. To his credit, he does mention his love for the song Hot ‘N’ Cold, but, really, only haters could deny its excellence. No harm no foul, right?
Well, then he goes on to mention Rachel Bilson as underrated – my Rachel Bilson!!! Oh, and while the Jonas Brothers have spurned my literary advances, the real TMR gets them on his podcast! I guess they say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery…
I’m just kidding – unfortunately, there is likely no way the TMR knows my column exists in this slice of the fantasy world. Still, the similarities are funny, no? (I do have all my hair though). I do find it heartening that I can, sometimes, somewhat, operate on the same wavelength as someone as successful as the TMR. But, please hands off Katy and Summer!
Alexei Ramirez – As I’ve noted in the past, Alexei Ramirez tends to heat up in a massive way toward the end of May and throughout June, July and August. Well last week he got this trend off to a decent start: .273 AVG and seven RBIs. That’s about where he’ll hit, but he could start adding some decent counting stats. Those struggling with shortstop woes might want to scoop up the 55 percent owned Ramirez.
Jose Guillen – he’s baaaaaack! Over the last seven days, Guillen has hit .370 and blasted three HRs. Ride him while he’s hot. He’ll do right by you. When he shows the first signs of cooling off, demote him to the pine. It’s really that simple with Guillen.
Jonny Gomes – Gomes has always shown a sweet power stroke and an equally awe-inspiring swing and miss stroke. Over the last seven days he had his mojo going: .333 AVG and two HRs. If he can get some ABs, he’ll provide some decent power. He’s not someone to sleep on (especially in SLG % leagues).
Luke Scott – I’ve discussed him enough: here. When he’s hot, he’s hot. Grab him!
Scott Rolen – I’ve also discussed Scott Rolen – when he is healthy, he produces. Over the last seven days (and he did miss a game), he hit .368 with two HRs and nine RBIs. I see no reason (other than health) that he can’t replicate his 2006 season – 25 or so HRs, push 100 RBIs and score 80+ runs. That’s pretty valuable for someone owned in only 37% of Yahoo! leagues.
Laynce Nix – When Dusty Baker is involved, Laynce always seems to find his way into playing time. He got some decent ABs (14) over the last seven days and put them to good use: .571 AVG and three HRs. With Drew Stubbs struggling and Laynce surging he could find his way to more ABs. He likely won’t hit for a decent average (.250 if you are lucky), but he could get you double digit HRs over the balance of the season. In deep and NL-only leagues, that is nothing to sneeze at.
Trevor Crowe – With Grady Sizemore hitting the DL, Trevor Crowe has seen an uptick in playing time. Getting full time duties over the last seven days, he hit .276 and stole two bases. He is a former first round pick and only 26, so there is some sort of pedigree here. He hasn’t hit for a great average in the minors (.275), but he has been able to swipe some bags (122 in 455 games). If you need speed upside in a deep league, he’s a good bet.
Annibal Sanchez – I lost out on Annibal Sanchez waiting for someone to hit the DL. What I also missed out on was his impressive last seven days: seven no-run innings paired with eight Ks and a 0.86 WHIP. Sanchez has been lights out lately: over his last 30.2 IPs, he has Ked 29 batters and posted a 2.35 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He is only seven percent owned, so, if he’s available, find a way to buy on his upside.
JC Romero – The pitching Romeros are killing it this year. With the Phillies bullpen in disarray, JC picked up two saves in the last week. That’s where his value lies. He is only owned in two percent of Yahoo! leagues, but he has to be more valuable than that. A save is a save is a save.
Trevor Cahill – Cahill has a much longer rope now that injuries have plagued the Oakland rotation. Still it would have been hard to remove him from the rotation given his last week (two starts, a 2.63 ERA and 0.88 WHIP) and month (two wins, a 3.68 ERA and 1.16 WHIP). The Ks won’t be there (he has just 14 in 29.1 IPs), so think of him as a Porcello circa-2009 upside buy. If he can keep your ratios down he’ll be a good guy to offset some high-WHIP but strong K pitchers.
John Lackey – Two starts from Lackey were a curse in disguise last week (12 IPs, seven Ks, a 6.75 ERA and 2.00 WHIP). Lackey, like fellow Red Sox hurler Josh Beckett, has had a rough 2010. He is walking almost two more hitters per nine innings than he has at any point in his career. He is also striking out 1.5 fewer batters – both of which have lead to a 1.31 BB/K rate, easily the worst of his career. I’m not so bullish that Lackey is handling the move to Fenway well. If you can trade him while he still has name recognition, go for it. Otherwise, wait for a good start or two and then start shopping. I don’t have a good long-term prognosis.
Tommy Hanson – Last week saw Hanson’s ERA grow like Tom Hanks in Big. It went from 2.88 to 4.18 in just one start. That start was horrid 1.2 IPs and eight runs. However, he did complain about dizziness, which would severely impact location. You’ve got to treat it as a one week anomaly and hope for the best. He’s a great young pitcher, but he hasn’t pitched a full major league season yet, so there are bound to be blips like this.
Brian Matusz – see coverage here. I really think he is a good buy low at the moment, his last seven days notwithstanding. I am an Orioles fan, so objectivity has flown out the window, but I think you need to give young pitchers a bit of rope. Sure, if you can trade him for more than where you drafted or what you paid for him go ahead, but if you’re dropping or moving him for cheap talent, I’d advise holding off as there are some good starts coming down the road.
Ricky Nolasco – Another two-start curse in disguise, Nolasco gave teams a 7.94 ERA, 1.59 WHIP and just six Ks in 11.1 IPs in his last two starts. Most of that damage was against the Chicago White Sox (he gave up eight runs in 5.1 IPs), so his week was really just one disastrous start. Feel free to run him out there without any concerns against the weak NL batting line-ups he’ll start facing soon.
Matt Wieters has 499 ABs in career = .281-13-56 w/ .736 OPS. Joe Mauer in 1st full yr. = .294-9-55 w/ .783 OPS. #twins #orioles
I have faith in Wieters. He has all the tools; it just takes young players awhile to reach their potential. If you’re in a shallow league with useful catchers on the wire, go ahead and drop Wieters, but keep tabs on him and when he starts raking (because he will) grab him back.
Geo Soto – Soto has had a bad last seven days – no hits in 13 ABs and just one run. He hasn’t had an RBI in 14 days and, during that span, has seen his average drop 73 points. Of course, over the last 14 days his BAbip is .150 and over the last 28 days it is .244. His career BAbip is .307. Basically, Soto will get his mojo back, just hold steady.
Ivan Rodriguez – There hasn’t been any hit in Rodriguez’s bat over the last seven days (4/21 and one RBI). Yesterday he also strained his lower back against the Orioles. Think of this swoon as a little luck correction as his .361 BAbip for the season wasn’t going to continue. With a much more normal BAbip, Rodriguez has seen his batting average drop from .393 on May 10 to .325 as of May 22. I hoped you enjoyed the ride, I think we’ve seen the best part of I-Rod’s season.
Lance Berkman – Berkman hit a homerun over the last seven days, unfortunately he had only four other hits in 24 ABs. He still only has 103 ABs on the season, so you need to give him a little rope. It’s not like you can trade him for anything. If his price hits rock bottom, I’d even advocate buying super low on him. I have faith he’ll turn it around.
Rickie Weeks – Mama told me there’d be Weeks like this. He hit just .148 and added just one run and two RBIs. For the season, his average is down to .242 and he has only swiped two bases. At this point he could reach the 20 HRs we thought he would, but the 20 SBs seem to be a long ways off. His latest batting average stumbles are due to some bad small sample size BAbips (.188 over the last seven days and .188 over the last 14), so his average won’t typically be this bad. I’m just concerned with the lack of running by him and the Brewers in general (I’m looking at you Alcides Escobar).
Marlon Byrd – As someone who has played a small part in Byrd’s ownership levels reaching 82%, I feel incumbent to talk about his latest stumbles (.167 AVG and just three runs over the last seven days). He is pretty much a .290 or so hitter, so his batting average is due to come down a little, but I think we can chalk this up to a bad seven day stretch. Nothing really to see here.
I’m switching to posting this column on Saturday/Sunday instead of the usual Wednesday. Let me know if this was a good/bad move, please!
All stats as of May 22
FB101’s 411: Be sure you know how to judge a hot streak. Scott, Guillen Sanchez, Ramirez and Rolen make good adds. Keep your eye on Romero, Cahill, Gomes and Nix. You are allowed to sort of give up on John Lackey and Ivan Rodriguez.