Fantasy Baseball Writers Mock Draft Analysis for FantasyPros911 (pay wall)

Fantasy Baseball Writers Mock Draft Analysis for FantasyPros911 http://fp911.com/fantasy-baseball-writers-mock-draft-analysis/.

I go through Ryan Braun, David Wright, Brett Lawrie, Desmond Jennings, Carl Crawford, Yovani Gallardo, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Greinke, Aramis Ramirez, Madison Bumgarner, Jason Heyward, Cameron Maybin, Yu Darvish, Matt Moore, Jesus Montero, Cory Luebke, Michael Pineda, Kenley Janson, Yoenis Cespedes, Bryce Harper, Ben Revere, Mike Trout, Adam Dunn, Addison Reed, Mike Minor, Justin Morneau, Lorenzo Cain, Edinson Volquez, Stephen Drew, Grady Sizemore, Zack Cozart, and more!

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Matt Joyce

Matt Joyce – Current ADP 385; 86th OF – My Rank: 241; 108th OF

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Tim Hudson

Tim Hudson – Current ADP 151; 39th SP – My Rank: 80th pitcher; 65th SP

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Bobby Abreu

Bobby Abreu – Current ADP 117; 32nd OF – My Rank: 50th hitter; 24th OF

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: James McDonald

James McDonald – Current ADP 295; 82nd SP – My Rank: 116th pitcher; 93rd SP

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Pedro Alvarez

Pedro Alvarez – Current ADP 83; 7th 3B – My Rank: 148th hitter; 21st 3B

Every year there is at least one hot young player that keeps getting pimped like he is Mary Magdalene. Like Chris Davis a few years ago, Alex Gordon, Brandon Wood and Dallas McPherson before that, people tend to spend top 10 round selections on guys that do way more to hurt their fake team than help (we’re talking the cost it takes to acquire the player plus potentially negative statistics).

I’m not sure Alvarez is that player this year, I believe in him from a power standpoint – however he is going way too high, especially relative to established guys at his position.

Across AAA and the majors last season, Alvarez hit 29 HRs. That’s some real and awesome power – he also paired it with a .256 average in the majors.

However, in the majors, he struck out 34.3% of the time and posted a .341 BABip (which isn’t unsustainable but seems high for someone like him). He also hit grounders 45.7% of the time last year which might limit him from getting massive power numbers.

I’m reticent to spend a top 10 round pick on a guy who will strike-out near 30% of the time, did the bulk of his damage in September/October (.306/.355/.577) and, even in the best of circumstances, will not help in average or stolen bases.

I don’t think he’ll be a bust, but for that price tag, I’d rather have Colby Rasmus, Alexei Ramirez, Aramis Ramirez and others.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Colby Rasmus

Colby Rasmus – Current ADP 88; 22nd OF – My Rank: 57th hitter; 26th OF

From a non-scientific and entirely casual Google exploration of the answer of “who is 2011’s CarGo?” Colby Rasmus seems to get the lion share of the answers.

However, I’m not quite sure the 24-year-old is ready to make that kind of leap.

That said, I do think he will outperform his current ADP – albeit slightly. I just don’t buy his career trajectory as something like CarGo’s (and seriously that was a once in a million years season).

Instead, Rasmus reminds me a lot more of Jay Bruce. At 21, Bruce showed all the promise in the world, hitting 21 HRs in just 108 games. However his sophomore campaign would not go as expected – he’d bat .223, battle injuries/demotions and appear in just 101 games. Of course a fair amount of bad luck (.221 BABip) played a part in that disappointing season.

Nevertheless, I see some similar warning signs with Rasmus – last season he had a .354 BABip – it was .282 the year before and never that far north of .300 in the minors.

In addition, in 2010, he didn’t hit anymore line drives, but did significantly increase his HR/FB% (from 9.4 to 14.8). Given those two things and a k-rate that will be north of 24%, I don’t think he has the chance to hit .280 or so, nor do I see an exceptional power upside.

I see Rasmus more as a .260 hitter with 20-25 HRs – i.e., a slightly better version of Bruce’s sophomore campaign – but short of what someone like Nick Swisher will provide.

The thing Rasmus has that Swisher doesn’t is a chance to steal 15-20 bases (which he did from 2006-2008 in the minors). Still, the conservative projector in me has him much closer to 15.

Basically, I’m in the odd position of both calling Rasmus a sleeper but trying to guard against a fair amount of hype that thinks he can be a top 20 performer.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

__________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Drew Stubbs

Drew Stubbs – Current ADP 156; 42nd OF – My Rank: 41st hitter; 17th OF

Let me start with a caveat: the batting average risk with Stubbs should knock him down your board a bit in roto leagues – however I’d still be comfortable taking him in the top 100 picks.

Meanwhile, in h2h, he should go near the top 40. Given his ADP, I think Stubbs is as close any player will come to matching the return on investment Carlos Gonzalez gave owners last year (and remember I called CarGo an 8th rounder last year).

You know the good with Stubbs – the ability to combine power and speed in a wayx that made Grady Sizemore look like a god (until they smote him). The bad from 2010 was an escalating K-rate – he struck out 32.7% of the time. He also swung at balls outside of the zone more often, made less contact with balls thrown inside the zone and traded line drives (down six percent) for fly balls (up four percent).

I think his K-rate can come down a good margin – it was 27% in 196 plate appearances in 2009 and never that close to 32% in the minors. Consequently, I can see his average inching up ever-so-slightly – he’ll probably hit a bit over .260. However, if he keeps trading line drives for fly balls, he has no average upside – but who cares? Everyone digs the long ball!

He could, legitimately, go 20-40, or 20-50. I think the floor is 20-30 (which he did last season). At only 26, Stubbs sure seems to have a bright future ahead of him. Given his ballpark and batting mates, he has good run/RBIs upside as well.

Quite simply, Stubbs should be the biggest bargain in h2h leagues in 2011.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

__________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Pablo Sandoval

Pablo Sandoval – Current ADP 125; 12th 3b – My Rank: 115th hitter; 15th 3b

Another twitter nomination! Sandoval confounded owners in 2010 after posting an incredibly good 152 game appearance in 2009.

Given he only has 2+ years of MLB experience, it’s a bit difficult to parse whether 2009 or 2010 is closer to the real Sandoval.

He did have a, perhaps high, .350 BABip in 2009 (but he also did in 154 MLB plate appearances in 2008 and similar numbers in the minors). So was his .291 mark in 2010 an aberration? I think it is – his line drive percentage, ground ball percentages, etc. are all in line with his major league track record. Consequently, I think he can bounce back to a .300 hitter (+/- .010), which is pretty nice.

However, the other problem Sandoval had in 2010 was a decline in ISO from .226 in 2009 to just .184 last year. He hit 12 less HRs and halved his 2010 HR/FB rate. I’m going to split the difference on 2009/2010 and give him an ISO near .180 or so. If he gets 600 or so ABs, that should result in 16-20 HRs.

Consequently, Sandoval looks to be a .300 hitting third baseman with moderate pop. Think of him as a Martin Prado-lite with fewer runs and more risk in batting average. He will likely out-RBI and –homer Prado though it could be closer than you think.

I could see Sandoval passing Chase Headley, Michael Cuddyer, and Scott Rolen in my rankings, but am not sure he has top 10 upside. I think he is being a tad overvalued in drafts and would much rather secure a top flight third basemen or wait and pick up the scraps. Sandoval’s upside is not really worth a 10 – 12 round price tag.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

_________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Jhoulys Chacin

Jhoulys Chacin – Current ADP 213; 67th SP– My Rank: 72nd pitcher; #58 SP

Maybe I’m not reading enough stuff, but I haven’t heard a lot of chatter about the Rockies starting rotation, specifically Jhoulys Chacin. In the past, I’ve been huge fans of Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge de la Rosa.

In his first real taste of the majors last year, Chacin pitched 137.1 innings and threw up a 9.04 K/9 rate, a 3.28 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.

Now that K/9 rate might be a tad high as the highest he posted in the minors was 8.58 in 35.2 innings in AAA last year (when he was repeating the level). So let’s pencil him in for a K-rate around 8.15 – and this is being extremely cautious. If he achieves this (which I think he will easily) and throws 175 innings, he’s a lock for about 160 Ks.

If you add his wholly reasonable 3.75 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, you’ve got the makings of a very nice pitcher. I hate to keep doing this, but most projections have Trevor Cahill at around a 3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 5.40 K/9 rate (130 Ks or so). So who would you rather have? I’d take Chacin without much thought.

I’m kind of shocked Chacin is going toward the end of most drafts – I’d rather have him than Derek Holland (who I love), Kevin Slowey, Jonathan Niese, Jaime Garcia, Jair Jurrjens, and Tim Hudson to name a few.

This year (as well as last year) you really should tap the Rockies for pitching – stay thirsty my friends?

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

_____________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).