h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Jhoulys Chacin

Jhoulys Chacin – Current ADP 213; 67th SP– My Rank: 72nd pitcher; #58 SP

Maybe I’m not reading enough stuff, but I haven’t heard a lot of chatter about the Rockies starting rotation, specifically Jhoulys Chacin. In the past, I’ve been huge fans of Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge de la Rosa.

In his first real taste of the majors last year, Chacin pitched 137.1 innings and threw up a 9.04 K/9 rate, a 3.28 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.

Now that K/9 rate might be a tad high as the highest he posted in the minors was 8.58 in 35.2 innings in AAA last year (when he was repeating the level). So let’s pencil him in for a K-rate around 8.15 – and this is being extremely cautious. If he achieves this (which I think he will easily) and throws 175 innings, he’s a lock for about 160 Ks.

If you add his wholly reasonable 3.75 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, you’ve got the makings of a very nice pitcher. I hate to keep doing this, but most projections have Trevor Cahill at around a 3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 5.40 K/9 rate (130 Ks or so). So who would you rather have? I’d take Chacin without much thought.

I’m kind of shocked Chacin is going toward the end of most drafts – I’d rather have him than Derek Holland (who I love), Kevin Slowey, Jonathan Niese, Jaime Garcia, Jair Jurrjens, and Tim Hudson to name a few.

This year (as well as last year) you really should tap the Rockies for pitching – stay thirsty my friends?

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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