2012 Fantasy Baseball Pitch or Ditch for Friday, April 20, 2012 for Fantasy Pros 911: http://fp911.com/2012-fantasy-baseball-pitch-or-ditch-for-friday-april-20-2012/. Who should you start on Friday? This post answers those questions.
Posts Tagged ‘jhoulys chacin’
10 Mar
h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Jhoulys Chacin
Jhoulys Chacin – Current ADP 213; 67th SP– My Rank: 72nd pitcher; #58 SP
Maybe I’m not reading enough stuff, but I haven’t heard a lot of chatter about the Rockies starting rotation, specifically Jhoulys Chacin. In the past, I’ve been huge fans of Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge de la Rosa.
In his first real taste of the majors last year, Chacin pitched 137.1 innings and threw up a 9.04 K/9 rate, a 3.28 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.
Now that K/9 rate might be a tad high as the highest he posted in the minors was 8.58 in 35.2 innings in AAA last year (when he was repeating the level). So let’s pencil him in for a K-rate around 8.15 – and this is being extremely cautious. If he achieves this (which I think he will easily) and throws 175 innings, he’s a lock for about 160 Ks.
If you add his wholly reasonable 3.75 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, you’ve got the makings of a very nice pitcher. I hate to keep doing this, but most projections have Trevor Cahill at around a 3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 5.40 K/9 rate (130 Ks or so). So who would you rather have? I’d take Chacin without much thought.
I’m kind of shocked Chacin is going toward the end of most drafts – I’d rather have him than Derek Holland (who I love), Kevin Slowey, Jonathan Niese, Jaime Garcia, Jair Jurrjens, and Tim Hudson to name a few.
This year (as well as last year) you really should tap the Rockies for pitching – stay thirsty my friends?
Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).
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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).
While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.
Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.
Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).
22 Sep
h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars
Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.
That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.
Katy Perry has also wondrously semi-debauched Sesame Street with a slightly cleaned up version of Hot N Cold. That is all.
‘Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up
Mike Aviles – Aviles is available in a lot of leagues. Aviles hit .462 over the last seven days and added three HRs. It appears the Royals will give Aviles the playing time he deserves. Ipso facto, Aviles should be rostered.
Danny Valencia – Valencia has been on absolute fire as of late (.391 AVG, three HRs and seven RBIs over the last seven days). However, I wouldn’t bank on him continuing power stroke. He slugged only .469 in the minors and just .373 in AAA this season. In deep leagues, I’d be interested, but he doesn’t profile as someone who can help 10- and 12-teamers.
Jose Guillen – Katy only included Jose Guillen because he has the propensity to absolutely go off and be one of the best hitters in baseball. There is an inkling that this might occur. Over the last seven days, Guillen went 7/14 and added two round trippers and eight RBIs. If he hits one more HR, I’d think of adding him for the h2h play-offs. It’s hard to catch lightening in a bottle this late, but Guillen could definitely be that spark.
Dan Johnson – Johnson hit three HRs over the last seven days. He has hit eight total since 2008. He did hit 18 bombs in 2007. However, the first base/DH position is pretty cloudy for the Rays. Carlos Pena, Brad Hawpe and Matt Joyce all need at bats and are left-handed. Unless there is an injury that frees up ABs, Johnson won’t have a ton of value.
Chris Johnson – If you listened to me on the radio Monday night, you would have heard me say I think Chris Johnson is in for a big week. So far, he has already had a good last seven days (.364 AVG, two HRs and five RBIs). I don’t think Johnson will replicate this season next year, but for the next 10 days, I wouldn’t mind riding his hot streak.
Carlos Gomez – True story, I traded Ian Desmond for Carlos Gomez in an NL-only league. That team is now in first and I am in second. It’s depressing. Well, Gomez has actually looked good of late (.350 AVG and three steals over the last seven days). As long as Gomez is playing, he has a chance to get on base, which means he’ll try to steal. If you need to solidify that category, he is a very available option.
Bud Norris – Another radio star Joel Henard and I discussed Monday. I don’t understand how Norris is only owned in 12 percent of leagues. Over the last seven days, he has two wins, 13 strike-outs, a 1.93 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He also plays for the Astros – what more do you want? Add him!
Jake Westbrook – Katy is absolutely shocked at Westbrook’s ownership levels. In his last start, he went eight shut-out innings with a 1.12 WHIP. Sure, he doesn’t strike out a ton of batters but he has a 3.26 ERA and 1.24 WHIP since joining the Cardinals. I wish I owned him.
Jhoulys Chacin – Here is a guy I don’t wish I own because I don’t have to because I own him (worst sentence construction ever?). In his last start, Chacin went eight shut-out innings and posted a 1.12 WHIP (somewhat identical to Westbrook’s last outing). Chacin has all the makings of a star and has been phenomenal this year (8.83 K/9, 3.30 ERA and 3.47 FIP). Please add him, he deserves it.
Then you’re cold…then you’re no…then you’re out…then you’re down
Mat Latos – One of the reasons my NL-only team is in second place – the struggles of Mat Latos. Over the last seven days, he managed to pitch just 1.1 IPs, yet he gave up eight runs on nine hits. He remains a good pitcher, but he hasn’t really tested his arm this much in terms of pitches and innings. If I’m close in ERA, I might be careful in how I use Latos in his next one or two outings. He should get the Dodgers in his next start, a team he has dominated this year.
John Danks – On April 30, Danks had three wins, a 1.55 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 rate, and 8.1 K/9 rate. At that time, I suggested people try to trade him. While he wasn’t entirely brutal over the last week (13.1 IPs, seven Ks, a 7.43 ERA and 1.35 WHIP), his 2010 K-rate has come down to 6.83 (just like last year), the walk rate has gone up to 2.94 and he has a 3.80 ERA and 3.71 FIP. I like Danks, but he was never the stud the beginning of the season made him look like. He remains an upper echelon match-ups play going forward.
Gio Gonzalez – In the same column I referenced above, I also suggested folks trade Gio Gonzalez. Like Danks, he too has had a tough seven days (eight IPs, eight Ks, a 7.88 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP). All of that is the result of one poor outing against Kansas City (seven runs in two IPs). I like Gonzalez a lot, even though he has benefited from a reduced HR/9 rate. He is a pitcher I am confident posting an ERA from 3.70 – 4.00 with a sterling K-rate (say 8.00 – 9.00).
Brandon Phillips – Joel and I talked about the brutality of Phillips recent stretch on Monday. It’s been bad (2/25 over the last seven days). What I had forgotten about was the bruised right hand he suffered about a month ago. At this point, you can’t wait for Phillips to come out of his funk; you should drop him and grab a player like Eric Young.
Elvis Andrus – Andrus has been borderline useless over the last seven days (.179 AVG and four runs). What’s worse is that he has been crashing back to earth after a hot start to the season. Sure, he has improved his OBP by about .020 points, but his slugging percentage is .305. That, my friends, is Wily Tavares-esque. What’s worse is he is only 30/44 in steal attempts. I still believe in Andrus for next year. He is only 21. However, for the rest of this season, Mike Aviles might be a better option right now.
All stats as of noon September 21, 2010
FB101’s 411: Be sure you know how to judge a hot streak. Aviles Chris Johnson, Chacin, Norris, and Westbrook make good adds. Keep your eye on Guillen, Gomez, and Valencia. You are allowed to sort of give up on Elvis Andrus and Brandon Phillips.
h2h Corner 