Don’t Look Back in Anger: Jesus Guzman, Dexter Fowler, Jarrod Saltalamacchia

For Razzball:

Don’t Look Back in Anger: Jesus Guzman, Dexter Fowler, Jarrod Saltalamacchia

http://razzball.com/don%E2%80%99t-look-back-in-anger-jesus-guzman-dexter-fowler-jarrod-saltalamacchia/

h2h Corner ~ You’re Killing me Smalls: Ubaldo Jimenez

Average Draft Position: 36

5×5 Rank: 996

Ownership levels: 97%

29.2 IPs, 30 Ks, 6.67 ERA, 1.58 WHIP

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Certainly I’ve not let my love of Ubaldo Jimenez be hidden over the last several years (here, here, here, here). He was, perhaps, one of my greatest sleeper calls ever. But I had him as a top 5 SP this year and he has been anything but.

h2h Corner ~ I’m a Believer: May Edition

It struck me that this piece could be known as the twitter column…

Zobrist…Zorrilla

Surprise, surprise, Lance Berkman is the top first baseman and my boy Zobrist is in the top 5. Expect Fielder/Pujols to replace them, with Teixeira and Howard filling out the top seven. Just a crazy deep position – I feel bad for those stuck with Justin Morneau and Kendrys Morales.

The Orioles have some buy low guys…Guerrero, Scott.

How is the human body so different from vessel to vessel: Holliday/Dunn, Bay/Morneau.

Matt Holliday – most underrated baseball player of the last few years? According to the players/Neyer, it is Shin-soo Choo. Hard to argue against that.

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Jhoulys Chacin

Jhoulys Chacin – Current ADP 213; 67th SP– My Rank: 72nd pitcher; #58 SP

Maybe I’m not reading enough stuff, but I haven’t heard a lot of chatter about the Rockies starting rotation, specifically Jhoulys Chacin. In the past, I’ve been huge fans of Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge de la Rosa.

In his first real taste of the majors last year, Chacin pitched 137.1 innings and threw up a 9.04 K/9 rate, a 3.28 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.

Now that K/9 rate might be a tad high as the highest he posted in the minors was 8.58 in 35.2 innings in AAA last year (when he was repeating the level). So let’s pencil him in for a K-rate around 8.15 – and this is being extremely cautious. If he achieves this (which I think he will easily) and throws 175 innings, he’s a lock for about 160 Ks.

If you add his wholly reasonable 3.75 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, you’ve got the makings of a very nice pitcher. I hate to keep doing this, but most projections have Trevor Cahill at around a 3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 5.40 K/9 rate (130 Ks or so). So who would you rather have? I’d take Chacin without much thought.

I’m kind of shocked Chacin is going toward the end of most drafts – I’d rather have him than Derek Holland (who I love), Kevin Slowey, Jonathan Niese, Jaime Garcia, Jair Jurrjens, and Tim Hudson to name a few.

This year (as well as last year) you really should tap the Rockies for pitching – stay thirsty my friends?

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

‘Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Wilson Betemit – Betemit’s frequent Katy Perry appearances have dried up of late. That is, until he clocked two HRs, batted .440 and added nine RBIs over the last seven days. He is batting .317 in 230 ABs this season, what more do you need from him? I’m not sure why Pedro Alvarez is owned more than Betemit.

Hideki Matsui – As John McCLane would say, “Welcome to the party pal!” Matsui has been a hibernating Godzilla for most of the year. However, he has come alive of late (.400 AVG and two HRs over the last seven days). Over his last 75 ABs, he is hitting .360 with five HRs and 20 RBIs. He is someone I’d be much more comfortable running out there than Alfonso Soriano.

Ryan Kalish – Kalish makes the second appearance on Katy’s All-stars of his young career. And what scout wouldn’t beam with pride because of this accomplishment? Something tells me the scout that pushed for him is a bit prouder of his last seven days of performance (.273 AVG, seven RBIs and one SB). He probably won’t help much in the AVG department, but he will score some runs and knock some in, while providing some light speed. There are many a-league where that’ll play.

Orlando Cabrera – Quick, which baseball player with the last name Cabrera had the best last seven days? No, not Daniel Cabrera. No, it wasn’t Orlando either. It was a trick question. Miguel Cabrera had the best last seven days, but Orlando was a close second (seven runs and a .346 AVG). Orlando is hitting .412 since returning from the disabled list and will bat amongst a potent Reds line-up. Really, at this point, you might rather have O-Cab than Elvis Andrus.

Felix Pie – Judging by my readership numbers, the majority of the 50 of you are Americans. What do Americans love most besides explosions, big breasts, celebrities, cheeseburgers, paradise, and Budweiser? Pie!!! Yet the fantasy playing community hasn’t gotten behind good old Felix? Over the last seven days, he was as sweet as mom’s apple pie cooling on the ledge (.333 AVG, five runs and a stolen base). Sure he has been dinged up this year, but no worse than the General Lee. Flat-out, when he’s healthy he has produced. If you want an outfielder who can pop the occasional homerun, score and steal a base, gobble, do not sex, the Pie.

Brett Wallace – Wallace has been anything but his namesake lately. But he has shown rock-throwing flashes of late (.353 AVG and a HR over his last seven days). He will not get many RBI opportunities and won’t score much given the Astros line-up, but it is good to see he can, at least, hang with major league pitching. While he has the pedigree, I wouldn’t be hanging my h2h play-offs on his performance.

Alex Sanabia – For whatever reason even though there has been ample opportunity, Katy has shied away from naming Sanabia to her All-star squad. With the dearth of usable pitching out there and his recent performance (6.2 shutout IPs, one win and a 0.90 WHIP), she could wait no more. Sanabia has been downright effective all season, going 54.2 IPs and posting a 3.95 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Surely you think the 32nd round draft pick in 2006 is being lucky. Well, not so fast my friends. He has a 3.57 FIP. What concerns me about him is just a 5.4 FB/HR rate – I’m pretty sure he won’t be able to sustain that. Still, there is a lot to like in Sanabia, especially as a streaming option. Be careful about HR hitting line-ups and parks though.

Brad Bergesen – As an Orioles fan, I’m stoked with what Bergesen has done lately (pitching his third career complete game, allowing just one run and posting a 0.78 WHIP). Over his last 35.2 IPs, Bergesen has a 2.52 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Unfortunately, there isn’t much upside for Bergesen with a miniscule 4.32 K/9 rate. Basically, the Orioles have been playing some inspired defense around him lately (.214 BAbip over the last seven days; .227 over the last 14 and .261 over the last 28). Until Bergesen learns to strike more batters out, he is, at best, a fringe option.

Then you’re cold…then you’re no…then you’re out…then you’re down

Alfonso Soriano – There hasn’t been a whole lot to like about Soriano’s season, especially his last seven days (2/15). I hope he isn’t a starter for your team during crunch time. If he isn’t, why not drop him for a streamable pitcher or a hot bat? Frankly, there can’t be too many super deep leagues where it is advantageous to hang onto Soriano as he plays out the string. He is 77 percent owned – that’s way too high. I’d rather have Pie.

Pedro Alvarez – When Alvarez goes on a binge, it is Tommy Gavin-esque. However, those have been few and far between, especially over the last seven (4/26) and 30 (18/95) days. He is 14 percent owned – which isn’t a ton, but about 13 percent more than it should be. He can’t hit righties and really can’t hit lefties. Grab Wilson Betemit.

Mark Buehrle – I think I told you to drop Buehrle previously, but that was probably 20 Katy Perry All-stars ago. Over the last seven days, he did squads no help (6.75 ERA and 1.67 WHIP with just five Ks in 12 IPs). He hasn’t been a totally useless fantasy entity (4.16 ERA, 4.08 FIP and 12 wins), but his 4.12 K/9 rate is the worst of times. Frankly, he has no upside. If I’m streaming, he is someone I will ignore.

JA Happ – The wheels have come off the Happ bandwagon a bit lately. Over the last seven days, Happ pitched 9.1 IPs and posted a 5.79 ERA and 1.82 WHIP. He did strike-out nine, so it wasn’t a complete loss. Is this the beginning of the performance readjustment that statheads have predicted? Sort of. Does that mean he loses all value? No. Think of Happ as a guy who can post an ERA from 4.00 – 4.50 with a 7.00 – 7.50 K/9 rate. That’ll play in most places as a bench/streaming option. Certainly, I like him more than Buehrle.

James Shields – Man James Shields is killing me. I have him in most leagues and the glimpses of the best of times have been good, but he always seems to muck up the works. To wit: over his last two starts he went 11.1 IPs, posted 12 Ks and a 3.97 ERA. Of course he also had a debilitating 1.50 WHIP. At a certain point, with so little season left, it’s hard to suggest Shields will suddenly morph into the 4.22 FIP pitcher we all expect him to be. The Ks have been there (8.47 per 9) all season, which is nice, but he has been murdered by a .347 BAbip. I like Shields going forward, but you need to be careful with your ratios this time of year, so be cautious with how you deploy him.

FB101’s 411: Be sure you know how to judge a hot streak. Betemit, Matsui, and Cabrera make good adds. Keep your eye on Kalish, Pie, Wallace and Sanabia. You are allowed to sort of give up on Soriano, Buehrle, and Alvarez.

h2h_Corner on Twitter http://twitter.com/h2h_Corner

h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

‘Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Mike Aviles – Aviles has been a fantasy tease (at least for me) over the last several years. So is his last seven days (two HRs, one SB and a .474 AVG) tease or reality? I’m hoping it is closer to reality, as he is getting full playing time because Chris Getz is injured. For whatever reason, the Royals think it is advantageous to split at bats between the two. Aviles is a good player, capable of helping your batting average out right away. He’ll add light pop and light steals, but, when he plays, he is an above average middle infielder.

h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: BJ Upton, Josh Hamilton, Dexter Fowler?

Isn’t this a bizarre keep, trade drop? Bossman Junior was a second round fantasy pick not too long ago. Last year, Josh Hamilton was a borderline first rounder. Dexter Fowler didn’t see his first consistent MLB action until last season.

h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop Adam Jones, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gonzalez?

This one has personal bias written all over it. I’m an unabashed Baltimore Orioles fan, ergo Adam Jones. While I may lie, numbers won’t. In his first two “full” seasons, Jones averaged 72 runs, 14 HRs, 10 SBs, and 64 RBIs, while posting a .274 AVE. I put full in quotation marks because Jones has been a bit banged up, playing 132 games in 2008 and 119 in 2009. Still, Jones won’t be 25 until August and we should see a good increase in numbers across the board in 2010.